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The Consequences of Brexit [part 5] Read 1st post before posting


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6 minutes ago, apelike said:

Just been reading what Corbyn has said and apparently he has tabled a non-binding motion of no-confidence in the PM. 

 

I think it a case of "Ha Ha said the clown"

apparantly the government isn't going to make time to debate the motion so he either 

 

lets it die

waits until the new year for the next opposition day

or converts it to a proper no confidence motion in the government

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10 minutes ago, apelike said:

I agree. But the triggering of A50 was legally binding on the UK and EU  under the terms of A50, even if the government changed it would still have to go through the motions. Its only recently that we know that it can also be withdrawn.

 

Yes that is also true but that has only just been ruled upon after all this time so it a new game-changer. I think it also has to be approved by the other house as well to be accepted.

You're right, the UK executive cannot unilaterally rescind article 50, it requires the assent of a bill before parliament as Gina Miller demonstrated in reverse - i.e. that A50 could only be signed as a result of an act of parliament.

Given that there will be less than 90 days until A50 automatically ejects the UK from the EU regardless, and that any Bill to rescind A50 cannot come before a vote in parliament on the Withdrawal Bill, it's likely that Parliament will find itself very pushed for time.

Assuming that May's withdrawal deal is rejected by parliament, the government will need to put forward a bill to either -extend article 50, or rescind article 50.

If parliament gives the question back to the people, you are looking at a 6-9 month minimum before another referendum, assuming parliament can agree the terms and the question - which on the face of it seems extremely unlikely.

Looking at it, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the UK just dropped out of the EU with no withdrawal agreement in place.

 

3 minutes ago, apelike said:

Just been reading what Corbyn has said and apparently he has tabled a non-binding motion of no-confidence in the PM. 

 

I think it a case of "Ha Ha said the clown"

It's a move designed to draw out more public criticism of May from the DUP I think. May is playing a little brinksmanship, and will only give it airtime if it's an actual vote under the fixed term parliaments act. Corbyn reserving the nuclear option until he thinks he can win it. Which ain't happening.

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12 minutes ago, Phanerothyme said:

Looking at it, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the UK just dropped out of the EU with no withdrawal agreement in place.

 

It's not going to happen.

 

Hillary Benn's amendment will prohibit it and given that there are only 30-35 Tory MPs plus Kate Hoey who support no deal, this is one of the few things Parliament can agree on.

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30 minutes ago, Top Cats Hat said:

It's not going to happen.

 

Hillary Benn's amendment will prohibit it and given that there are only 30-35 Tory MPs plus Kate Hoey who support no deal, this is one of the few things Parliament can agree on.

Hilary Benn's amendment may or may not make it onto the bill. There's a queue of them (which should speed up the process nicely, to the tune of Countdown...)

If it doesn't, it's hard to see how it's going to prevent a no-deal brexit by default with the certainty you express.

A50 can't be legally rescinded without a specific act of parliament doing so, as I understand it. If it's not rescinded then  it stands.

Anyone who thought that this can't happen because rational, intelligent people are on top of the detail and the timing, must surely have had every last illusion shattered by now.

May will go back to the EU and ask for a 12 month extension on A50. Betcha.

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32 minutes ago, Phanerothyme said:

Hilary Benn's amendment may or may not make it onto the bill. There's a queue of them (which should speed up the process nicely, to the tune of Countdown...)

This is the most serious constitutional crisis since World War Two.

 

If Parliament has to sit through the night of the 28th in emergency session to sort this out, it will.

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2 hours ago, Top Cats Hat said:

If Parliament has to sit through the night of the 28th in emergency session to sort this out, it will.

But they wouldn't. If they sit through the night of the 28th in an emergency session to try and sort it out it will be already too late so there would be no point. Any decision will need to be approved by both houses first for it to be valid which would take time and by then we will have left.

 

 

Edited by apelike
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