Second referendum time? SF Poll

[Halibut]

4 minutes ago, BrexitGuy said:

Did you read the full report? Especially the bit about income. 

The £2300 analysis comes at a cost. The cost being each and every immigrant earning the following;

 

AT WHAT INCOME LEVEL DO MIGRANT HOUSEHOLDS BECOME NET 
CONTRIBUTORS?
There is no definitive income level at which an additional migrant can be 
said to “break even” in their contribution to the UK’s public finances. The 
fiscal contribution a household makes is determined by more than just their 
income level. Factors such as whether they have dependent children or a 
working partner, and their likelihood to claim any benefits to which they are 
entitled, also play an important role. Migrants from outside and inside the EEA, and from OMS and NMS, have different characteristics which affected their net contributions in 2016/17. 
We conducted a specimen household analysis to explore the break-even 
level of household income (Fig. 14). We focused on four hypothetical migrant households, representing different stages in the lifecycle, to illustrate how the “starting point of positive contribution” to the UK’s public finances moves around over the lifecycle, in terms of the annual household gross income required to reach this point.
A single, working 20-year-old with no dependent children, for example, 
must earn a gross income between £10,000 and £15,000 per annum to 
become a net contributor to the public finances (HH1 in Fig. 14). But later 
in life, if this individual lives with a working partner and two dependent children, their “break-even” household income looks rather different: the fiscal implications of raising children mean the household needs to earn around £45,000 to contribute positively to public finances (HH2). Once those children are no longer financially dependent, the same two working parents, aged 55, would have a different relationship with the state again: they would require a combined gross income of around £25,000 per annum, on average, to make a positive net fiscal contribution that year (HH3). And once the pair have retired, aged 70, they would require a much higher household income of over £90,000 to support the level of annual public spending they would incur (HH4).25 The very high break-even point for household four reflects large health and pension costs, as well as the loss of liability for National Insurance contributions for people over 65.

In short, it's highly unlikely that the majority of immigrants will fall into this bracket, especially as a higher population reduces the amount of higher paid jobs.

 

On what grounds are you claiming it's unlikely?

[RollingJ]

17 minutes ago, Halibut said:

The governments Migration Advisory Committee commisioned Oxford Economics to do a study -  https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/recent-releases/8747673d-3b26-439b-9693-0e250df6dbba

Thanks for that, Halibut. Doesn't mean I'm going to read it all 😀, but at least you linked to the full report.

The only real problem I have with these 'theoretical analysis' type things - from either side of a debate - is that they are exactly that, and I therefore take them with a largish pinch of salt.

[BrexitGuy]

5 minutes ago, Halibut said:

On what grounds are you claiming it's unlikely?

Stating "Highly Unlikely" is not a claim. It's a point of view. There's a difference and sadly for you, no link will be available. 

 

[Halibut]

Just now, BrexitGuy said:

Stating "Highly Unlikely" is not a claim. It's a point of view. There's a difference and sadly for you, no link will be available. 

 

Ok then, explain why, in your opinion, it's highly unlikely.

[BrexitGuy]

14 minutes ago, Halibut said:

Ok then, explain why, in your opinion, it's highly unlikely.

At the moment, the national minimum wage is £7.83 and hour. Let's take away the percentage of migrant folk who are educated at degree level, and will naturally earn significantly more, and that leaves the remainder to take the more medial jobs, which at the moment give an annual income of just over £16000 a year. Of course there will be another percentage of these folk who go in to further education to improve their skills, and some who will progress higher in their workplace, but that will still leave a huge proportion that remain on standard pay throughout their working lives. Based on the rates for medial jobs, they don't have a good history of regular pay rises, unless it's in line with the government standard rates. In short, we can only estimate that a large proportion of immigrants will only ever earn a basic amount, which even at minimum wage levels are significantly higher than what they could earn in say, Poland etc so based on that, thy would struggle to earn the amounts the report says. But of course this is just my opinion and in no way does this constitute a legally binding contract between me, the writer and the general public at large. X

[Halibut]

7 minutes ago, BrexitGuy said:

At the moment, the national minimum wage is £7.83 and hour. Let's take away the percentage of migrant folk who are educated at degree level, and will naturally earn significantly more, and that leaves the remainder to take the more medial jobs, which at the moment give an annual income of just over £16000 a year. Of course there will be another percentage of these folk who go in to further education to improve their skills, and some who will progress higher in their workplace, but that will still leave a huge proportion that remain on standard pay throughout their working lives. Based on the rates for medial jobs, they don't have a good history of regular pay rises, unless it's in line with the government standard rates. In short, we can only estimate that a large proportion of immigrants will only ever earn a basic amount, which even at minimum wage levels are significantly higher than what they could earn in say, Poland etc so based on that, thy would struggle to earn the amounts the report says. But of course this is just my opinion and in no way does this constitute a legally binding contract between me, the writer and the general public at large. X

Did you know that 62 percent of migrants from western Europe are educated to degree standard as compared to 24 percent of the native labour force? I suspect perhaps not. 

Also the word 'medial' is not the word you were looking for and makes no sense in the context in which you used it.

[BrexitGuy]

1 minute ago, Halibut said:

Did you know that 62 percent of migrants from western Europe are educated to degree standard as compared to 24 percent of the native labour force? I suspect perhaps not. 

Also the word 'medial' is not the word you were looking for and makes no sense in the context in which you used it.

I personally know at least 30 people from Poland, Latvia, Romania and Lithuania and not one of them are educated to degree level. What would your statistics say about that?

Oh, and the word Medial means average.

I'm surprised a person of your Googlonic power was unable to assert this, but I'm sure you will find a way of saying it means Onion Rings in Swahili.

 

 

[Halibut]

1 minute ago, BrexitGuy said:

I personally know at least 30 people from Poland, Latvia, Romania and Lithuania and not one of them are educated to degree level. What would your statistics say about that?

Oh, and the word Medial means average.

I'm surprised a person of your Googlonic power was unable to assert this, but I'm sure you will find a way of saying it means Onion Rings in Swahili.

 

 

The word you were trying for was 'menial'. Look it up.

[L00b]

These past few pages have been great: after Brexit, given the minimum salary thresholds applicable to highly-skilled EU immigrants under third country rules, and given that the U.K. will still be needing to import those skills to keep competitive, then all those low-paid natives replacing the departing low-paid EU27 migrants, are going to have higher-paid foreign-born bosses!

 

Can’t hardly wait for those unskilled Leave voters to cop on to that one  

Edited December 18, 2018 by L00b

[Phanerothyme]

18 minutes ago, Halibut said:

The word you were trying for was 'menial'. Look it up.

Jesus Wept. "Medial Jobs".