Consequences Of Brexit [Part 9] Read First Post Before Posting

[nightrider]

13 hours ago, Baron99 said:

And remember, when it comes to cheese, the UK produces far more varieties than France.  There's bound to be a variety of British cheese that could replace your favourite French variety? 

 

There's a stall in The Moor Market, that sells, I'd say, at least 30 varieties of British cheese.  Far more than you'd find in Sainsbury's supermarket on the other side of The Moor. 

Yes, but can they scale up production to replace all the French/Swiss/Spanish swiss cheese we buy?  I am doubtful because many suppliers are small scale farms in the UK.

9 hours ago, Baron99 said:

I think you'll find its the other way round?  For many Remainers, the reality of the UK leaving still hasn't sunk in 4 & a half years down the line & they stil believe there's a fight to be had rather than use that energy to make the country achieve potential, they'd rather keep moaning in the hope of their 'I told you so' moment. 

 

Sometimes on this thread I find it incredible how some people can be so negative about their own country, that they'd take joy in seeing it fail, when ultimately if it fails, they will suffer as well. 

 

I

Nope, I won't suffer. I have a well paid job not dependent on being in the EU. Can't say the same for all those fishermen, farmers and small business owners who voted leave and are now unable to export.

[Bargepole23]

10 hours ago, Baron99 said:

I think you'll find its the other way round?  For many Remainers, the reality of the UK leaving still hasn't sunk in 4 & a half years down the line & they stil believe there's a fight to be had rather than use that energy to make the country achieve potential, they'd rather keep moaning in the hope of their 'I told you so' moment. 

 

Sometimes on this thread I find it incredible how some people can be so negative about their own country, that they'd take joy in seeing it fail, when ultimately if it fails, they will suffer as well. 

 

It's like a perverse form of schadenfreude in that they'd take pleasure in inflicting doom, gloom  & misfortune on themselves, in the hope of proving a point. 

Its sunk in. When the question is asked regarding tangible and intangible benefits, we get answers like yours about "achieving potential". What does that mean in for example, fishing, or farming, or car manufacturer, or financial services?

[RJRB]

10 hours ago, tinfoilhat said:

We could pretend its a success. Will that help? 

 

We arent reporting things that are false, we are now reporting on direct consequences - as per the thread title- as they come in. At the moment its mainly fishing. In slightly less worse news, dpd will soon be restarting road transport back up, and Gibraltar has effectively entered the schengen agreement.

Totally true.

Most of the preceding thousands of post have been based on the possibilities and probabilities arising from our departure from the EU,and much of the comment could not take in to account any form of negotiated deal.

So now the thread can come into its own and the pros and cons can be updated as they arise.

 

[L00b]

1 hour ago, Bargepole23 said:

Its sunk in. When the question is asked regarding tangible and intangible benefits, we get answers like yours about "achieving potential". What does that mean in for example, fishing, or farming, or car manufacturer, or financial services?

Way-way-way too early, to be discussing about any "potential" to "achieve" anyway.

 

And I don't mean that with reference to Jacob Rees-Mogg's 50 year timescale for Brexit benefits to be reached, but with reference to the just-started period of adjustment to the new international trade (import/export) 'normal' for the UK. It's only been 2 weeks or so.

 

That 'new' red tape strangling mal-adapted fishermen, pork farmers and a raft of other agrifood producers (with the test of UK plc in tow and yet to realise) is not 'new', it is the *standard* red tape for 3rd country exporters to EU (and non-EU but still CUSM) member states.

 

It is not something which MPs or the government can 'sort out', ever, until and unless the UK should move closer to BRINO, no matter how loud and anguished and angry the howls from fishermen, farmers, associations, federations and other lobby groups get.

 

So, a lot of dust needs to settle first and, at the scale of the UK economy, that is going to take a long while.

 

Quick note in passing (not @ you Bargepole23): there haven't been any 'Remainers' for nearly a year now. But there is a growing movement of 'Rejoiners'. Hopefully for you all it won't take 40-odd years to achieve.

 

 

Edited January 18, 2021 by L00b

[nightrider]

7 minutes ago, L00b said:

Way-way-way too early, to be discussing about any "potential" to "achieve" anyway.

 

And I don't mean that with reference to Jacob Rees-Mogg's 50 year timescale for Brexit benefits to be reached, but with reference to the just-started period of adjustment to the new international trade (import/export) 'normal' for the UK. It's only been 2 weeks or so.

 

That 'new' red tape strangling mal-adapted fishermen, pork farmers and a raft of other agrifood producers (with the test of UK plc in tow and yet to realise) is not 'new', it is the *standard* red tape for 3rd country exporters to EU (and non-EU but still CUSM) member states.

 

It is not something which MPs or the government can 'sort out', ever,

 

 

Not so. A large part of the problem is lack of customs agents to help with the paperwork, lack of information from HMRC and lack of vets for certifying meat/animals for export. All things the government can fix (but presumably not on the timescale of weeks). I am sure eventually it will all be sorted and also expect by then many businesses to have gone bust, presumably mostly smaller operators mostly dependent on the EU for business that can't hold on whilst unable to export to the EU.

[L00b]

1 hour ago, nightrider said:

Not so. A large part of the problem is lack of customs agents to help with the paperwork, lack of information from HMRC and lack of vets for certifying meat/animals for export. All things the government can fix (but presumably not on the timescale of weeks). I am sure eventually it will all be sorted and also expect by then many businesses to have gone bust, presumably mostly smaller operators mostly dependent on the EU for business that can't hold on whilst unable to export to the EU.

Well, I've drawn attention to these missing 50,000 customs agents before. Time and again, and again recently. Where is HMG at with those, 2 or 3 years after it estimated that shortfall and claimed that it was recruiting and training them? The last figure I saw, late last year, was circa.1600 and the private sector was building them golden bridges right out of HMG training courses.

 

What is HMG proposing to do about the missing vets? They can't exactly be magicked out of vet schools with weeks or months, and between Covid, Brexit and Patel's HO/hostile environment, the UK isn't exactly head-lining with headhunters atm, still less positions in the UK civil service or govt contracting providers.

 

How is the government going to fix the ISPM15 shortage? <next huge problem that noone in the UK seems to be talking about, even though Palletways (look them up) has been signalling the issue loud and clear for months, and now just joined DHL & DB Schenker in washing its hands off UK freight for the next few weeks at least>

 

So yes, I'm afraid, very much so. At least until HMG begins to engage in governance, instead of damage control by propaganda which, unsurprisingly, doesn't control any damage but just continues to hide it...ever less effectively. Those artics going around Downing Street today are not believing hard enough, looks like.

 

I've kept services out of the loop deliverately, btw. The UK-EU27 agreement has no provisions for those. That's why those €6bn's worth of EU shares fled UK trading floors the moment they re-opened on 4 January. The EPP is today asking the Commission for a plan to 'repatriate' still more financial services from the City faster.

Edited January 18, 2021 by L00b

[nightrider]

12 minutes ago, L00b said:

Well, I've drawn attention to these missing 50,000 customs agents before. Time and again, and again recently. Where is HMG at with those, 2 or 3 years after it estimated that shortfall and claimed that it was recruiting and training them? The last figure I saw, late last year, was circa.1600 and the private sector was building them golden bridges right out of HMG training courses.

 

 

Yes - so the problem is not the new trading arrangements, its incompetent governance in the UK.

[L00b]

26 minutes ago, nightrider said:

Yes - so the problem is not the new trading arrangements, its incompetent governance in the UK.

We seem to be at cross purposes.

 

When I said "it's not something MPs and HMG can sort", I was referring to those red tape standards of international trade, to which UK businesses (and HMRC & HMBF &...) must (re-)adapt.

 

MPs & HMG cannot change these. They can create more bureaucracy to help UK businesses to navigate it, sure. In that respect, their incompetence lies in not doing that early and well enough (acknowledging it back in 2016, instead of calling it 'Project Fear' and hand-waving it away, would have been a great help....but then, they may not have got the voting result that they were after in 2016, then in 2017, then in 2019).

 

The take-away point is, no amount of shellfish trailer running (and maybe even discharging) past the window of no.10 downing street is going to achieve anything with that 'red tape' now or in the foreseeable future. Except hurrying the gvt in finding and training those 50k customs persons. That takes time, a lot of it (1 to 2 years acc.to experienced customs specialists).

 

Blaming either red tape, or gvt incompetence, or the EU, or Remainers, or all of them together plus the neighbour's cat, doesn't begin to fix the problem, which is what is needed most urgently of all.

 

 

Edited January 18, 2021 by L00b

[nightrider]

55 minutes ago, L00b said:

We seem to be at cross purposes.

 

When I said "it's not something MPs and HMG can sort", I was referring to those red tape standards of international trade, to which UK businesses (and HMRC & HMBF &...) must (re-)adapt.

 

MPs & HMG cannot change these. They can create more bureaucracy to help UK businesses to navigate it, sure. In that respect, their incompetence lies in not doing that early and well enough (acknowledging it back in 2016, instead of calling it 'Project Fear' and hand-waving it away, would have been a great help....but then, they may not have got the voting result that they were after in 2016, then in 2017, then in 2019).

 

The take-away point is, no amount of shellfish trailer running (and maybe even discharging) past the window of no.10 downing street is going to achieve anything with that 'red tape' now or in the foreseeable future. Except hurrying the gvt in finding and training those 50k customs persons. That takes time, a lot of it (1 to 2 years acc.to experienced customs specialists).

 

Blaming either red tape, or gvt incompetence, or the EU, or Remainers, or all of them together plus the neighbour's cat, doesn't begin to fix the problem, which is what is needed most urgently of all.

 

 

Well its far too late to fix. Many of these businesses caught out by the UK governments lack of preparation are not viable anymore and will close down.

 

Of course fixing it fast as possible is still important.

 

 

[Obelix]

15 hours ago, Baron99 said:

I think you'll find its the other way round?  For many Remainers, the reality of the UK leaving still hasn't sunk in 4 & a half years down the line & they stil believe there's a fight to be had rather than use that energy to make the country achieve potential, they'd rather keep moaning in the hope of their 'I told you so' moment. 

 

Sometimes on this thread I find it incredible how some people can be so negative about their own country, that they'd take joy in seeing it fail, when ultimately if it fails, they will suffer as well. 

 

It's like a perverse form of schadenfreude in that they'd take pleasure in inflicting doom, gloom  & misfortune on themselves, in the hope of proving a point. 

Well there is little to be positive about the UK now, and to be honest - I'm quite happy for it to fail hard and fast as a warning to others who decide to leave the EU. Achieve it's potential? I don't give a rat's ass if it does to be honest any more. The UK made it's bed it can lie and rot into obscurity in it.