Consequences Of Brexit [Part 9] Read First Post Before Posting

[L00b]

1 hour ago, andyofborg said:

Presumably, there will be EU based organisations setting up GB distrubution centers in the same way UK ones are setting up EU based ones. These will need to be stocked so that may explain some of the flow.  

 

Are we confident that, especially road freight, is flowing both ways and one truck isn't going empty one way?

 

You can't rebuild integrated supply chains overnight, we may get a better understanding of the situation in three or four months when the pre-brexit stockpiles have been used and the supply chains have had chance to adjust. 

The UK is currently waving through anything and everything coming in, because its customs agents and procedures are not ready to fully process inbound freight.

 

That is normal (agreed with the EU27 as part of the TCA) and due to end by 1 July as the UK gets up to speed.

 

The reason why truck are returning empty, is because the EU27 is not waving through anything and everything arriving from the UK. The lack of preparation on the UK side has resulted in so much freight getting stopped and turned around (especially because lorries include consignments from different exporters with respective customs decs/forms for each individual load, and 1 wrong form for 1 load means the whole artic gets stopped, even if everything is fine for the other loads), that hauliers are not accepting UK exporters' orders until and unless every last form is checked and correct, and they can fill an artic with enough correct loads, and it makes economical sense to do so from a logistical point of view.

 

The reason why the EU27 is not waving through anything and everything, is because it does not want to see trade disputes arising with other countries at the WTO under the MFN rules (under the MFN rules, if the EU27 waved everything from the UK through, it would have to do it for everyone else).

 

All this was previously long-explained and debated ad nauseam in previous iterations of the "Brexit consequences" thread, there is nothing remotely surprising or unexpected about any of it.

Edited February 21, 2021 by L00b

[Obelix]

On 21/02/2021 at 13:01, L00b said:

The UK is currently waving through anything and everything coming in, because its customs agents and procedures are not ready to fully process inbound freight.

 

That is normal (agreed with the EU27 as part of the TCA) and due to end by 1 July as the UK gets up to speed.

 

The reason why truck are returning empty, is because the EU27 is not waving through anything and everything arriving from the UK. The lack of preparation on the UK side has resulted in so much freight getting stopped and turned around (especially because lorries include consignments from different exporters with respective customs decs/forms for each individual load, and 1 wrong form for 1 load means the whole artic gets stopped, even if everything is fine for the other loads), that hauliers are not accepting UK exporters' orders until and unless every last form is checked and correct, and they can fill an artic with enough correct loads, and it makes economical sense to do so from a logistical point of view.

 

The reason why the EU27 is not waving through anything and everything, is because it does not want to see trade disputes arising with other countries at the WTO under the MFN rules (under the MFN rules, if the EU27 waved everything from the UK through, it would have to do it for everyone else).

 

All this was previously long-explained and debated ad nauseam in previous iterations of the "Brexit consequences" thread, there is nothing remotely surprising or unexpected about any of it.

It's almost like the Brexiters are just not listening here to what the actuality is. Mind you there has been a good five years of that so far...

I wanted some 725 making up for a small project - needs a custom forging made and usually I'd go to a couple of places in Sheffield. Not a big order not even for them but worthwhile enough that they would be happy to take the order.

I got it from Hitatchi this time.  It's far easier, and way less aggravation to get it from Japan to Italy than from UK to Italy these days. Even though the base cost was a fair bit higher, still worth doing so...

[Bargepole23]

9 hours ago, Obelix said:

It's almost like the Brexiters are just not listening here to what the actuality is. Mind you there has been a good five years of that so far...

I wanted some 725 making up for a small project - needs a custom forging made and usually I'd go to a couple of places in Sheffield. Not a big order not even for them but worthwhile enough that they would be happy to take the order.

I got it from Hitatchi this time.  It's far easier, and way less aggravation to get it from Japan to Italy than from UK to Italy these days. Even though the base cost was a fair bit higher, still worth doing so...

They don't care. They see it as a price worth paying for their "sovereignty".

 

 

[L00b]

10 hours ago, Obelix said:

It's almost like the Brexiters are just not listening here to what the actuality is. 

I have little doubt that they are. But that reality is irrelevant.

 

If the Brexiteers you mention are the politicians, then these economic consequences count for nothing: the worse they are, the better for their victimhood complex-based politics (excellent article in the Guardian about this, recently...but years after Fintan OToole wrote the definitive book about it (Heroic Failure, worth your time)).

 

If the Brexiteers you mention are the voters, posting in here or not, you're unlikely to  ever get them to admit publicly (...semi-publicly under a Forum alias) that they got conned by Farage, Johnson and co. 5 years ago.

 

So you should not expect any reaction from either type of Brexiteers, as the Digby Jones index continues to chronicle the unfolding of long-forecast Brexit consequences.

 

Nor from the political opposition, which is continuing to give the Tories a full pass over it all, in the mistaken belief that the Tories will wear Brexit at the voting booths in 4 years.

 

That is why Brexit isn't going to get reversed or mitigated in any way, anytime soon and, if Gavin Ester is even half-right in his latest book (How Britain ends), any notions of getting close with the EU again will be by freshly-independent nations that used to form the UK.

Edited February 25, 2021 by L00b

[Annie Bynnol]

Your assessment of nationalism in the UK needs tweaking.

 

Nationalism  occurs in all nations, regions and localities of the UK.

The recent popularity of English nationalism is based around perceived unfairness  of the economic system  in the UK ie "Why are the Scots, Welsh, Irish, immigrants etc treated better than me?"

Modern Nationalism in Wales and Scotland originated from quite unpleasant racist right wing views and in both cases became popular only when the parties moved to the left of centre.

Nationalism in Wales is deeply influenced by far more important issues surrounding language. 

In Scotland, with centuries of civil war forgotten, oil revenue re-kindled  self determination.

In England, Empire, war winning, economic and social dominance, sport, and waves of immigrants establishing their social position, a unique form of nationalism is the norm.

In Northern Ireland...

Along comes Europe and for the first time Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland and regions of England are treated as distinct entities and feel represented within Europe rather in the UK democracy where they are just 'seats' at Westminster and were their interests are only discussed in committees. The English regions are completely ignored with power focused in London.

 

I personally detest 'nationalism',  but in the face of a London version of English nationalism  dominating  the  political, financial and legal institutions of our democracy what choice have they in Wales and Scotland and even a large section of the Unionist community in Northern Ireland.

 

In Northern England we cannot even settle on train journeys to its regional airport.

 

 

Edited February 25, 2021 by Annie Bynnol

[L00b]

48 minutes ago, Annie Bynnol said:

Your assessment of nationalism in the UK needs tweaking.

 

(...)

I welcome that tweaking perspective  (noting that mine wasn't an assessment as such, rather it was agreement with Mr Esler's own assessment).

 

But there is relatively little point to that tweaking, in the context of a Brexit discussion post-01.01.21: whether the UK endures notwithstanding its nationalistic fevers, or eventually fragments into independent constituent nations (or regions, or etc) according to same, only influences the balance of negotiating power in further trade agreement talks with the EU27, likewise in (re-)accession talks (<which was my point above).

 

Beyond that, it's an internal UK issue, as relevant to other EU members states under the UK-EU TCA-based relationship that is now in force, as nationalism(s) in e.g. Russia, Belarus or Morocco.

Edited February 25, 2021 by L00b

[RJRB]

5 hours ago, Bargepole23 said:

They don't care. They see it as a price worth paying for their "sovereignty".

 

 

In simple terms it is now the sacrifice of market accessibility versus Sovereignty.

The scales may fall from the eyes of some misled Brexit voters but the damage is done.

Frost will undoubtedly continue to pursue the hard line at some cost to various sectors of the economy.

[ads36]

today i'm wondering how much money we'll have to give Stellantis to keep Vauxhall-Ellesmere-Port open...?

 

once upon a time companies opened factories here because it made financial sense, now we have to bribe them.

 

oh well, consequences...

[enntee]

27 minutes ago, ads36 said:

today i'm wondering how much money we'll have to give Stellantis to keep Vauxhall-Ellesmere-Port open...?

 

once upon a time companies opened factories here because it made financial sense, now we have to bribe them.

 

oh well, consequences...

Incentives have always been given to companies to attract them to establish businesses.

[apelike]

49 minutes ago, enntee said:

Incentives have always been given to companies to attract them to establish businesses.

Indeed. The large Nissan plant would not be here otherwise.