Consequences Of Brexit [Part 9] Read First Post Before Posting

[El Cid]

On 26/02/2021 at 10:23, ads36 said:

today i'm wondering how much money we'll have to give Stellantis to keep Vauxhall-Ellesmere-Port open...?

 

once upon a time companies opened factories here because it made financial sense, now we have to bribe them.

 

oh well, consequences...

Will keeping corporation tax low be a factor in keeping businesses happy?

[ECCOnoob]

On 26/02/2021 at 10:23, ads36 said:

today i'm wondering how much money we'll have to give Stellantis to keep Vauxhall-Ellesmere-Port open...?

 

once upon a time companies opened factories here because it made financial sense, now we have to bribe them.

 

oh well, consequences...

What on earth are you talking about "bribe them".  Its simply business.  

 

We are now more than ever before in a global marketplace (with the world trading and bartering with itself long before that phrase existed).  Its basic competition and its fierce.  Incentives, reward and freebies are nothing new. 

 

Do you think retailers are "bribing" their customers when they offer loss leaders or hugely undercut their competitors with block discounting or offer loyalty schemes/privileges/rewards or offer perceived improved reputation or image by choosing their X over somewhere else's Y.

 

Do you think online companies are "bribing" their customers when they offer tax advantages, sign up bonuses, free additional services or aggressive price matching. 

 

Its not rocket science.   Its all about getting X to choose you and yours over everybody else bidding.    Its been happening for decades nee centuries before Brexit and will contine to happen thereafter.    I really dont understand what seemingly desprate "consequences" you were trying to prove.   This is not a new story. 

[Flanker7]

7 hours ago, ECCOnoob said:

What on earth are you talking about "bribe them".  Its simply business.  

 

We are now more than ever before in a global marketplace (with the world trading and bartering with itself long before that phrase existed).  Its basic competition and its fierce.  Incentives, reward and freebies are nothing new. 

 

Do you think retailers are "bribing" their customers when they offer loss leaders or hugely undercut their competitors with block discounting or offer loyalty schemes/privileges/rewards or offer perceived improved reputation or image by choosing their X over somewhere else's Y.

 

Do you think online companies are "bribing" their customers when they offer tax advantages, sign up bonuses, free additional services or aggressive price matching. 

 

Its not rocket science.   Its all about getting X to choose you and yours over everybody else bidding.    Its been happening for decades nee centuries before Brexit and will contine to happen thereafter.    I really dont understand what seemingly desprate "consequences" you were trying to prove.   This is not a new story. 

Its not rocket science.

The financial arguement for Brexit was lost a long time ago. There is a financial disadvantage to being outside the EU.

There is an emotional advantage to feeling that we are a free, sovereign, and independant country - Huzzar!

 

All very well, but its only a feeling. 

"We are now more than ever a global marketplace"  and we need all the advantages we can get. The EU gives gave us an advantage.

[Westie1889]

Brexit will cost the UK economically, around 4% lost GDP growth in the next decade according to the Bank of England, anyone who thought it would make them rich has truly been misled.

 

However, I also think  part of Brexit was a desire for political change within the UK, especially in the regions.

There is an argument to say this cry for help has been heard with the governments leveling-up agenda.  Understandably there will be scepticism about whether this is delivered but the re-writing of the Treasury investment rules are a major step towards this.

Also the impact of freedom of movement on the lowest 30% of workers wages will start to be reversed once the economy returns to normal times, and I have written on here before about how it is already causing higher wages in part of the industry I work in.

Hopefully it will also lead to better working conditions and more stable contracts for people  once businesses have to compete more for a smaller pool of labour.

 

Other benefits not considered by the BofE forecast but of great  importance to people are things like pressures on vital infrastructure such as schools, hospitals and housing. The UK was on track for what many felt was in-sustainable population growth.

I do get that some of these pressures could have been solved by government but both Labour and the Tory’s failed so Brexit was a way of people making that choice themselves.

There are obviously a whole host of other non-GDP downsides, from loss of FoM to non-tariff barriers, and for some people a loss of identity.

 

Ultimately I think we will end up a bit poorer overall as a nation but perhaps a lot fairer, especially for those towards the bottom of society.

[El Cid]

3 hours ago, Westie1889 said:

Other benefits not considered by the BofE forecast but of great  importance to people are things like pressures on vital infrastructure such as schools, hospitals and housing. The UK was on track for what many felt was in-sustainable population growth.

Even after 2016 we had very high immigration, only COVID can reduce immigration.

Net migration to the UK was estimated to be 270,000 in 2019, down from a peak of 331,000 in the year ending March 2015.

 

[Magilla]

13 hours ago, Westie1889 said:

Other benefits not considered by the BofE forecast but of great  importance to people are things like pressures on vital infrastructure such as schools, hospitals and housing. The UK was on track for what many felt was in-sustainable population growth.

...those "people" are going to get a shock, what they're going to get is more of the same but at a higher personal cost.

 

13 hours ago, Westie1889 said:

I do get that some of these pressures could have been solved by government but both Labour and the Tory’s failed so Brexit was a way of people making that choice themselves.

All they've done is replace people who effectively subsidised those systems for those that, in all likelihood, won't.

 

UK population growth will continue unabated.

[Westie1889]

On 28/02/2021 at 21:51, Magilla said:

those "people" are going to get a shock, what they're going to get is more of the same but at a higher personal cost.

 

It depends what happens ref: immigration policies and whether this and subsequent governments look for similar migration levels outside of the EU.

EU migration has a very minimal positive economic benefit when based on direct and indirect taxes raised vs what the system has to provide for those migrants and their families.

 

Non-EU migration has a huge net cost so it’s true if we replace EU migrants with non-EU migrants the UK will be significantly worse off.

 

Robert Peston (a remainer) commissioned analysis that showed the net benefit from EU migration was around £5bn over a 5 year period whilst the cost of non-EU migration in the same period was something like £500bn so a huge difference.

 

The key is what type of migration we want and need, low skilled and low wage migration based on the new earnings ceiling will stop or businesses will have to pay higher wages if they want it - a ‘win-win’ in my view for  both UK workers and migrants.

 

The labour market for lower skilled/wage jobs will swing back to a fairer position and one which economists would recognise as a true ‘market’ rather than the previous situation which was distorted massively in the favour of businesses. This resulted in wage deflation for the bottom 30% and abhorrent contract situations where a working person doesn’t know what they are going to earn in a particular week.

 

The other potential longer-term benefit not covered by many commentators is that many if not most of low wage earners do not pay tax or pay very little as they need everything they earn just to survive. Rising wages could tip this balance to the benefit of the Treasury but it will take time.

 

If everything stays the same as during EU membership then I agree what you say would be true based on economic realities, but economies adjust based on opportunities individuals see and government policy.

 

There are lots of opportunities despite what people say, within my own industry I can highlight several where the new tariff regime has given UK importers a distinct cost advantage over those in the EU. It’s a case of people letting the dust settle and then taking advantage of them.

I also accept there will be downsides and losses, but it’s certainly not one-way traffic.

What I do agree on is that prices will rise and we will all need to pay more for the things we buy, especially in the short-term. 
Long-term rising wages should cover this adjustment but in the short-term businesses and the top and middle income tax payers (like myself) will have to be taxed a bit more to help the lower earners make that transition.

[the_bloke]

It's important to note that all the headlines about EU migrants putting more into the economy than they take out base their figures on the assumption that they are neither educated nor retire in the UK, so are classed as taxpayers for the entire duration they are in the country. The earnings/expenditure ratio is then compared against a native who is born, educated, works, retires and dies in the UK and surprise(!) 18 years of financial support and education and 25+ years of retirement and healthcare costs the taxpayer a lot of money.

[L00b]

Meanwhile, away from the same (6 years-) old debate about whether non-British residents in the UK contribute to the average UK quality of life or sponge off it, UK loyalist paramilitary groups in Northern Ireland have reportedly told the British prime minister that they are withdrawing support for the 1998 Belfast Agreement. 

[Westie1889]

1 hour ago, L00b said:

Meanwhile, away from the same (6 years-) old debate about whether non-British residents in the UK contribute to the average UK quality of life or sponge off it, UK loyalist paramilitary groups in Northern Ireland have reportedly told the British prime minister that they are withdrawing support for the 1998 Belfast Agreement. 

Where did anyone mention the word sponge?

we were talking about economics and using data that is out there - sorry for being factual.

Migrants obviously give benefits other than purely taxes in and out, a glaring example is the NHS where migrants bring the skills we need so badly.

 

They also create value for their businesses but whether that translates to increased taxes is a moot point when you look at the likes of Amazon and how they handle their tax affairs.

 

My background in terms of education is economics so that’s why I put the points across as I did, emotion or bias to one view or another doesn’t come into it - it’s purely data driven and based on well known economic models e.g supply and demand and it’s effect on wages.

 

The problem with the whole Brexit debate is that neither side speaks the truth, everything is twisted to suit personal biases then lazy tropes are thrown around, it’s really tiring and childish.

 

Like it or not we have left now, people need to get on with the serious work of making the best of it but if people go around with closed minds or ignore the evidence on both sides of the argument then they really have no credibility.