Coronavirus - Part Two.

[SFBeca]

MOD - hi all, if you are making a claim  on this thread, can you provide some attribution to it please. 

[top4718]

7 minutes ago, Carbuncle said:

So I've tracked down the source of the 9300 people statistic. What was actually said was "Official figures for Albania recorded 2,200 COVID deaths but 9,300 excess deaths." ( https://www.euronews.com/next/2021/08/05/the-real-covid-death-toll-which-country-in-europe-has-the-highest-excess-mortality-rate ) . Not quite what you claimed but then accuracy was never your strong point. You're welcome.

Unfortunately not, this report was from August, try Luke Andrews report form Mailonline (Nov 17th), he's used figures from the ONS, the Telegraph reported the same but it's behind a pay wall. Sorry wrong again I'm afraid, you'll see the light one day.

[Carbuncle]

11 hours ago, top4718 said:

Many new sources tonight are reporting that 9300 more people than usual have died from non-covid illnesses in the last four months, very worrying for you experimental vax lovers, don't know how you sleep at night.

Ah the last four months, so that would be July, August, September and October ...

5 minutes ago, top4718 said:

Unfortunately not, this report was from August, try Luke Andrews report form Mailonline (Nov 17th), he's used figures from the ONS, the Telegraph reported the same but it's behind a pay wall. Sorry wrong again I'm afraid, you'll see the light one day.

... but the report was from August. Are the ONS using psychics then? Perhaps you would have been better accepting the Albanian version of the claim.

[HeHasRisen]

5 minutes ago, top4718 said:

Unfortunately not, this report was from August, try Luke Andrews report form Mailonline (Nov 17th), he's used figures from the ONS, the Telegraph reported the same but it's behind a pay wall. Sorry wrong again I'm afraid, you'll see the light one day.

Can you post links please? See the mod note, nothing stopping you doing so.

[melthebell]

25 minutes ago, top4718 said:

Unfortunately not, this report was from August, try Luke Andrews report form Mailonline (Nov 17th), he's used figures from the ONS, the Telegraph reported the same but it's behind a pay wall. Sorry wrong again I'm afraid, you'll see the light one day.

so again you use and believe MSM when it suits

[Guest sibon]

19 minutes ago, HeHasRisen said:

Can you post links please? See the mod note, nothing stopping you doing so.

I don't think that Tops likes to have his sources scrutinised. He just likes being shouty.

 

Here it is:

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10211749/amp/Nearly-10-000-people-died-usual-July-non-Covid-illnesses.html

 

It is an interesting article. Luke Andrews is a good journalist. 

 

Certainly worthy of discussion.

[Carbuncle]

58 minutes ago, sibon said:

Here it is:

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10211749/amp/Nearly-10-000-people-died-usual-July-non-Covid-illnesses.html

 

It is an interesting article. Luke Andrews is a good journalist. 

 

Certainly worthy of discussion.

I think this is something and nothing. Let me summarise the data in a slightly different way from the article:

 

In a normal year, 200 000* people die in each four month period. In the last four months 220 000 have died of whom 10 000 had covid on the death certificate. Please explain the other 10 000 non-covid deaths.

 

It's mildly intriguing but I have very low expectations of obtaining a satisfactory explanation. First off, I am not a big believer in causes of deaths on death certificates especially in a world turned upside down  where doctors are doing something they have not done before, ie attribute deaths to covid or not. Some of the 10 000 non-covid deaths could well be covid related, certainly that is what the 'deaths with covid' figure which is 15 000** for the last four months would suggest. I think this 'it's an artifact' explanation could easily knock thousands off the 10 000 figure.

 

Secondly, we actually do expect deaths from other causes to be up versus a normal year. There was a big win in the early months of the year in terms of excess mortality through not having a flu season because we were in lockdown but most of the effects of being in a pandemic are surely negative (over and above the possibility of dying from covid). For example, people have not been getting regular standards of healthcare in the way they would normally. I don't have a sense how big this effect might be ... of course the article is saying it should be around 10 000 deaths.

 

Lastly, while we like to have causes, often the best explanation is randomness. By randomness, I mean stuff where any explanation is over-explanation ("overfitting"). I don't have a sense how big this effect might be.

 

The 10 000 non-covid deaths is something but as I said above I have very low expectations in terms of obtaining a satisfactory explanation.

 

* All the numbers I am giving are very rough (source: me, I made them up thinking they are roughly right) but my argument does not really depend on them being precisely right.

 

** This number is roughly right because I looked it up on Our World in Data.

Edited November 18, 2021 by Carbuncle

[top4718]

1 hour ago, Carbuncle said:

Ah the last four months, so that would be July, August, September and October ...

... but the report was from August. Are the ONS using psychics then? Perhaps you would have been better accepting the Albanian version of the claim.

If the Albanian report you linked was from August the deaths must have been prior to that so you're still wrong, keep sticking your fingers in your ears and making loud noises, the evidence is mounting.

[top4718]

1 hour ago, melthebell said:

so again you use and believe MSM when it suits

I'm not stating whether I believe them or not in this instance I'm just putting it out there for discussion, the ONS data is the key aspect of it.

[fools]

3 hours ago, sibon said:

Still. It's  nice to see you finally accepting that masks work.

Your source is?