Coronavirus - Part Two.

[Chekhov]

11 hours ago, melthebell said:

why do you have a flu jab every year?

Not everyone does have a flu jab, most people do not in fact, but people certainly are not coerced / forced to do so.

 

11 hours ago, top4718 said:

My next door neighbour died on Tuesday, very ill person who has gone downhill since his wife died in early January, suffered with COPD and its subsequent breathing problems, caught Covid in hospital two days before he sadly died and that has been put as the cause of death on his death certificate, his family are furious.

I have heard many stories like this, far too many for them all to be invented. They actually reckon 25%, possibly more, of people put down as dying of/with Covid did nothing of the sort. They just happened to have Covid when they died

 

Quarter of Covid deaths not caused by virus, new figures show, calls to speed up roadmap as data records people dying 'with' disease rather than 'from' it
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/13/quarter-covid-deaths-not-caused-virus/
The Daily Telegraph 14 Apr 21

Edited November 26, 2021 by Chekhov

[Chekhov]

11 hours ago, Bargepole23 said:

By the 17th March, there were approximately 170 Covid related deaths in England, let's extrapolate to 200 for GB. Is that the data set you used to make your inference and inform your son? Doesn't seem a very big data set relative to the GB population? Is that the basis of the BBC bar chart? Or is it representing deaths worldwide, where other external factors may have influenced the distribution?

No, I got the data from New Scientist, I think they got it from China, which at that time, I seem to remember, was about 40,000 deaths. I tried to find the actual page, but could not in the time I was prepared to spend on this.

As it happens we still think the BBC / Imperial Colleg est of the death rates was correct, somewhere between 1 in 100 and 1 in 200. But, and this is very interesting, that is for this country, or a similar wealthy western country. The death rate for developing countries is much lower because their populations are younger.

The exception to that is Peru. Their death rate is by far the highest in the world despite their average population age being only 31. Very inconveniently for those advocating mask mandates Peru has had a mask mandate (including outside ! ) from the very start, and now they require "one KN95 mask or one three-layer surgical mask and a cloth mask on top of it", it hasn't helped has it ?

[Carbuncle]

1 hour ago, Chekhov said:

"You can't be too careful" ? 

Well actually yes you can because there is a cost, social as well as financial, to all these suppression measures. The latest over reaction :

 

You're arguing with your own straw man.

1 hour ago, Chekhov said:

Well travel restrictions haven't kept out any other variant and there is absolutely no reason to think they will suddenly start working now, but, until we just learn to live with Covid and abandon this "can't be too careful" attitude, this will go on, possibly forever.

You're arguing with another straw man. Travel restrictions can delay the arrival of a variant and the number of arrivals and that has value. Though, yes, things do have to be kept in proportion.

1 hour ago, Chekhov said:

12 hours ago, top4718 said:

My next door neighbour died on Tuesday, very ill person who has gone downhill since his wife died in early January, suffered with COPD and its subsequent breathing problems, caught Covid in hospital two days before he sadly died and that has been put as the cause of death on his death certificate, his family are furious.

I have heard many stories like this, far too many for them all to be invented. They actually reckon 25%, possibly more, of people put down as dying of/with Covid did nothing of the sort. They just happened to have Covid when they died

The mythical 'they' but yes all the different methods of measuring deaths as a result of covid (deaths with covid, doctor determined cause of death, excess mortality) are all approximate.

1 hour ago, Chekhov said:

12 hours ago, Bargepole23 said:

By the 17th March, there were approximately 170 Covid related deaths in England, let's extrapolate to 200 for GB. Is that the data set you used to make your inference and inform your son? Doesn't seem a very big data set relative to the GB population? Is that the basis of the BBC bar chart? Or is it representing deaths worldwide, where other external factors may have influenced the distribution?

No, I got the data from New Scientist, I think they got it from China, which at that time, I seem to remember, was about 40,000 deaths. I tried to find the actual page, but could not in the time I was prepared to spend on this.

The point is that the risk of death posed to different age groups in the UK was highly uncertain in mid March 2020. It has changed over time. It is different for different populations. It is still uncertain but better understood now than then.

1 hour ago, Chekhov said:

The death rate for developing countries is much lower because their populations are younger.

The death rates for rich countries are approximate. For poor countries, with possibly a few exceptions, the death rate is basicly unknown. Hopefully, it is lower. If it is lower, having a younger population might well be the main explanation.

1 hour ago, Chekhov said:

The exception to that is Peru. Their death rate is by far the highest in the world despite their average population age being only 31.

Peru's reported death rate is indeed very high. They took the step, at a certain point, of admitting to the World their testing regime was inadequate for the purpose of measuring covid deaths and (I think) substituted excess mortality for covid deaths.

[top4718]

2 hours ago, Chekhov said:

Not everyone does have a flu jab, most people do not in fact, but people certainly are not coerced / forced to do so.

 

I have heard many stories like this, far too many for them all to be invented. They actually reckon 25%, possibly more, of people put down as dying of/with Covid did nothing of the sort. They just happened to have Covid when they died

 

Quarter of Covid deaths not caused by virus, new figures show, calls to speed up roadmap as data records people dying 'with' disease rather than 'from' it
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/13/quarter-covid-deaths-not-caused-virus/
The Daily Telegraph 14 Apr 21

Its amazing that any death with Covid even remotely linked is a Covid death but any illness or death linked to the vaccine is dismissed as something else or a coincidence.

[butlers]

Not at all there were two deaths yesterday reported in the press where it's highly likely a reaction to the vaccine was the cause

[top4718]

5 minutes ago, butlers said:

Not at all there were two deaths yesterday reported in the press where it's highly likely a reaction to the vaccine was the cause

Have a read through this thread and you'll find plenty of denial.

[butlers]

I think denial might include anyone who thinks less people died in 2020 than the pre pandemic year of 2019 because they had " seen a graph"

Even more so when they post a list to that effect which showed a 9% higher total 

 

[Bargepole23]

2 hours ago, Chekhov said:

No, I got the data from New Scientist, I think they got it from China, which at that time, I seem to remember, was about 40,000 deaths. I tried to find the actual page, but could not in the time I was prepared to spend on this.

As it happens we still think the BBC / Imperial Colleg est of the death rates was correct, somewhere between 1 in 100 and 1 in 200. But, and this is very interesting, that is for this country, or a similar wealthy western country. The death rate for developing countries is much lower because their populations are younger.

The exception to that is Peru. Their death rate is by far the highest in the world despite their average population age being only 31. Very inconveniently for those advocating mask mandates Peru has had a mask mandate (including outside ! ) from the very start, and now they require "one KN95 mask or one three-layer surgical mask and a cloth mask on top of it", it hasn't helped has it ?

So you based your advice to your son on data which might be limited in how applicable it was to the the UK? DId you know it was the same variant in the UK, in March 2020, did you know the effects of geographical/racial differences, did you consider the data was very time-limited. And then despite all that, you concluded, in mid-March 2020 that the risk to your son was zero?

 

Remind me to ignore any judgements you make on here.

8 minutes ago, top4718 said:

Have a read through this thread and you'll find plenty of denial.

You still haven't "Come back to me", to quote yourself, on who is classifying me as unvaccinated. Should be an easy one to answer, surely.

[Chekhov]

53 minutes ago, Carbuncle said:

You're arguing with another straw man. Travel restrictions can delay the arrival of a variant and the number of arrivals and that has value. Though, yes, things do have to be kept in proportion.

Not much value, and certainly not worthwhile for the massive inconvenience and cost of it all.

[Chekhov]

10 hours ago, Carbuncle said:

The point is that the risk of death posed to different age groups in the UK was highly uncertain in mid March 2020. It has changed over time. It is different for different populations. It is still uncertain but better understood now than then.

No it hasn't, it has been remarkably consistent. The graphic I put on (and have done again below) is dated March 2020, that's 2020, not 2021. It was always the case that Covid is NOT indiscriminate and I was shocked that so many otherwise intelligent people just accepted that cobblers from the government when they said "this virus is indiscriminate". I can remember hearing it at their Covid briefing (I think it was the deputy chief medical officer Dr Jenny Harries ) who said it and I was so shocked at "the powers that be" coming out with a bare faced lie that I nearly crashed the car.....

 

 

You are right that is is different for different populations primarily because different populations have different age profiles, and different levels of obesity. But, for the UK's population, which is what we are interested as regards UK Covid strategy, it has remained fairly consistent all the way through.

Edited November 26, 2021 by Chekhov