Coronavirus - Part Two.

[Chekhov]

21 minutes ago, Bargepole23 said:

So you based your advice to your son on data which might be limited in how applicable it was to the the UK? DId you know it was the same variant in the UK, in March 2020, did you know the effects of geographical/racial differences, did you consider the data was very time-limited. And then despite all that, you concluded, in mid-March 2020 that the risk to your son was zero?

 

Remind me to ignore any judgements you make on here.

I saw the stats from China and was certain they'd be the same here, which they proved to be very quickly (see graphic, dated 16th March, in the above post). You seem to be lacking confidence in my Covid "judgements" because I was correct ? ! ?

Edited November 26, 2021 by Chekhov

[Bargepole23]

3 minutes ago, Chekhov said:

I saw the stats from China and was certain they'd be the same here, which they proved to be very quickly (see graphic in the above post). You seem to be criticising me for being correct ? ! ?

Nope, just interested to know how you knew they'd be the same, other than guessing/hoping? Only in hindsight were you correct.

 

If you can outline the scientific process, it would inform the discussion.

Edited November 26, 2021 by Bargepole23

[Chekhov]

8 minutes ago, Bargepole23 said:

Nope, just interested to know how you knew they'd be the same, other than guessing/hoping? Only in hindsight were you correct.

Because we are all human beings, and there isn't that much difference between us all, which was the correct call to make. It wasn't just China, no children from any other country had died of Covid up to that time. And, incidentally, very very few kids without serious existing conditions have died of Covid in this country either. In fact very few children even with serious existing conditions have died, though every child death really is a tragedy, unlike someone in their mid 80s, which is sad for their family but hardly a tragedy. Mid 80s is still a reasonable age even these days, and the average age of a Covid death in this country is (it certainly was until recently) 82.4 years old.

 

Risk of death [from Covid] for a child 1 in 500,000 :
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57766717

Edited November 26, 2021 by Chekhov

[Carbuncle]

@Chekhov , this is ridiculous. You are attributing things to us we have never said. You are arguing with strawmen.

[Chekhov]

10 hours ago, Carbuncle said:

The point is that the risk of death posed to different age groups in the UK was highly uncertain in mid March 2020. It has changed over time. It is different for different populations. It is still uncertain but better understood now than then.

Error, duplicated post.

Edited November 26, 2021 by Chekhov

[Chekhov]

1 hour ago, Carbuncle said:

@Chekhov , this is ridiculous. You are attributing things to us we have never said. You are arguing with strawmen.

Not sure what you mean TBH, but I'll tell you what is absolutely ridiculous, apparently all the kids in my lad's year group (8 years old) at school have been told they have to take  a PCT test whether or not they have any symptoms. This is disproportionate nonsense and I am sick to death of it, I wonder whether Gregg "over reaction" Fell has anything to do with it ? 

Let's just look at the facts :

1 - Kids are at no risk from Covid, in  fact it could even be arguable it would be beneficial for them to catch Covid whilst they were young, like Chicken Pox.

2 - Most of their parents even if unvaccinated would be in little danger from Covid because nearly all would be under 50 and the great majority under 40, BUT they have almost certainly all been vaccinated (or at least offered the vaccine) anyway ! And therefore are at very small risk of even hospitalisation much less death.

3 - Taking a child for a PCT test is a time wasting PITA and not pleasant for the child either.

 

What is is going on ?

Who is driving all this bull**** ?

When is the world going to wake up from this utter UTTER madness ?

Edited November 26, 2021 by Chekhov

[Chekhov]

10 minutes ago, Chekhov said:

Not sure what you mean TBH, but I'll tell you what is absolutely ridiculous, apparently all the kids in my lad's year group (8 years old) at school have been told they have to take  a PCT test whether or not they have any symptoms. This is disproportionate nonsense and I am sick to death of it, I wonder whether Gregg "over reaction" Fell has anything to do with it ? 

Let's just look at the facts :

1 - Kids are at no risk from Covid, in  fact it could even be arguable it would be beneficial for them to catch Covid whilst they were young, like Chicken Pox.

2 - Most of their parents even if unvaccinated would be in little danger from Covid because nearly all would be under 50 and the great majority under 40, BUT they have almost certainly all been vaccinated (or at least offered the vaccine) anyway ! And therefore are at very small risk of even hospitalisation much less death.

3 - Taking a child for a PCT test is a time wasting PITA and not pleasant for the child either.

 

What is is going on ?

Who is driving all this bull**** ?

When is the world going to wake up from this utter UTTER madness ?

Doe this mean this guidance is from "waste everyone's time for no good reason" Gregg Fell ?

 

We have today received further guidance from Public Health which asks for all children in Year 4 to be taken for a PCR test (not just a LFT) unless they have had COVID within the last 90 days.

 

I note it says "asks", well they can take a hike.

Edited November 26, 2021 by Chekhov

[Chekhov]

3 hours ago, Carbuncle said:

The death rates for rich countries are approximate. For poor countries, with possibly a few exceptions, the death rate is basicly unknown. Hopefully, it is lower. If it is lower, having a younger population might well be the main explanation.

It's all in here, though there may be more recent research of anyone has time to look it up :

WHO / Stanford study :
https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf

 

I think the Stanford study estimated the death rate per infection at about 1 in  450 but that was for (or included) poorer countries ?

[Bargepole23]

2 hours ago, Chekhov said:

Because we are all human beings, and there isn't that much difference between us all, which was the correct call to make. It wasn't just China, no children from any other country had died of Covid up to that time. And, incidentally, very very few kids without serious existing conditions have died of Covid in this country either. In fact very few children even with serious existing conditions have died, though every child death really is a tragedy, unlike someone in their mid 80s, which is sad for their family but hardly a tragedy. Mid 80s is still a reasonable age even these days, and the average age of a Covid death in this country is (it certainly was until recently) 82.4 years old.

 

Risk of death [from Covid] for a child 1 in 500,000 :
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57766717

No children had died, in the very short period of time for which data was available, but you had no idea if the disease may take longer to show serious effects in young children.

 

Where you live and who you live with can make a big difference to the impact of viral diseases.

 

In short, a guess, which fortunately for you turned out to be correct. And then you use that outcome to try to suggest your initial guess was based on some kind of insight.

 

Nice that you write off the over 80's. Typical callous approach of those opposed to the vaccine, to justify their choice, "keep the vulnerable safe" meaning lock em up in their houses whilst the rest of us crack on.

Edited November 26, 2021 by Bargepole23

[El Cid]

16 hours ago, Jim Hardie said:

Abstract 10712 
Steven Gundry is a bit controversial, but if he’s right maybe the boosters should be halted for the time being. Too late for me, lol.

He is a former cardiac surgeon, it seems he is now into selling supplements to make money. Why choose him as your expert?