Coronavirus - Part Two.

[tinfoilhat]

14 minutes ago, Delbow said:

So, someone has been to Brazil via Paris and Switzerland recently and brought back a virulent strain of Covid, and failed to put their contact details on their test documents. I hope they had a bloody good reason for going there. Also, what kind of inbound controls are we operating, where someone has to be tested but can't be traced?

£22bn on serco track and trace. That number again, £22bn.

[apelike]

17 minutes ago, Delbow said:

So, someone has been to Brazil via Paris and Switzerland recently and brought back a virulent strain of Covid, and failed to put their contact details on their test documents. I hope they had a bloody good reason for going there. Also, what kind of inbound controls are we operating, where someone has to be tested but can't be traced?

As far as I know a variant can occur anywhere given the right condition and may not necessarily be imported so it may just be down to that.

Edited March 1, 2021 by apelike

[tinfoilhat]

Just now, apelike said:

As far as I know a variant can occur anywhere given the right condition and may not necessarily be imported so it may just be down to that.

Really? A variant exactly the same as the braziallian one can just evolve on its own in isolation? How does that work?

[apelike]

20 minutes ago, tinfoilhat said:

Really? A variant exactly the same as the braziallian one can just evolve on its own in isolation? How does that work?

Viruses naturally mutate so I would assume that it could. It evolved in one person so I would think it safe to assume that the same variant can also evolve in another person as well given that there are billions of people on this planet and many will have similar conditions (DNA etc) for that to happen. 

 

This may be a helpful read:

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/01/coronavirus-evolving-same-mutations-around-world/617721/

Edited March 1, 2021 by apelike

[tinfoilhat]

5 minutes ago, apelike said:

Viruses naturally mutate so I would assume that it could. It evolved in one person so I would think it safe to assume that the same variant can also evolve in another person as well given that there are billions of people on this planet and many will have similar conditions (DNA etc) for that to happen. 

So, given that virus can mutate in many (hundreds?millions?) ways you're claiming that one person can develope the Brazilian one  - the exact Brazilian one - without going to Brazil or being near anyone who had the Brazilian variant? 

 

I'll be honest that sounds a bit optimistic to me. I'll stick with occams razor - we screwed up track and trace and we have massive, easily negotiable holes in our quarantine system.

[apelike]

26 minutes ago, tinfoilhat said:

So, given that virus can mutate in many (hundreds?millions?) ways you're claiming that one person can develope the Brazilian one  - the exact Brazilian one - without going to Brazil or being near anyone who had the Brazilian variant? 

Yes its evolution at work. The same variants can occur independently given the same conditions of the host. 

 

Have a read of the link I posted.

 

BTW. I'm not stating that is the case here but just a possibility.

 

They also don't mutate in millions of ways, maybe hundreds but the unsuccessful ones die out for want of a better word and the successful one become the norm.

 

Edited March 1, 2021 by apelike

[Thirsty Relic]

Track and Trace was never going to work for the whole population, but it could have worked for the very limited numbers leaving/entering the country (apart from illegal immigration of course) during this present crisis if there had been the will to really get to grips with it. 

 

It sounds like, a whole year into Covid, we still do not check who is coming in and have details on them for at least 2 weeks to check for new variants. 

 

Travel Agents were clearly given the green light on foreign travel well before Boris's talk on the 22nd,  Many UK residents have as a result booked holidays in countries that are not at present on the "red list", but may be in future.  No quarantining is planned on return, so we can expect many more cases coming this summer and another lockdown.

[Delbow]

1 hour ago, Thirsty Relic said:

Track and Trace was never going to work for the whole population, but it could have worked for the very limited numbers leaving/entering the country (apart from illegal immigration of course) during this present crisis if there had been the will to really get to grips with it. 

 

It sounds like, a whole year into Covid, we still do not check who is coming in and have details on them for at least 2 weeks to check for new variants. 

 

Travel Agents were clearly given the green light on foreign travel well before Boris's talk on the 22nd,  Many UK residents have as a result booked holidays in countries that are not at present on the "red list", but may be in future.  No quarantining is planned on return, so we can expect many more cases coming this summer and another lockdown.

I do worry about this. I get that people want to see some light at the end of the tunnel, but it's not helpful for government to give optimistic forecasts just because they don't want to upset people. I know for some people it's really difficult for their mental health, but you'd hope that others would have enough in them to be able to cope without a holiday abroad.

[petemcewan]

Apelike,

You have highlighted a very interesting aspect of the ever evolving corona virus.

A microbiologist friend of mine who worked at St Thomas Hospital (London). Explained to me that the virus can pop out variants here in the UK that are exactly the same as those that occur in different parts of the world.

The upshot is a bit unnerving. It theorises that variants don't need to be imported, but occur here at the same time as in Brazil,  because of the  virus's natural mutation cycles.

Anyway,that 's the theory. The implications for border control are massive. The variants are not stopped from getting in. They are here already, or will eventually be here.

Edited March 1, 2021 by petemcewan

[apelike]

2 hours ago, petemcewan said:

Apelike,

You have highlighted a very interesting aspect of the ever evolving corona virus.

A microbiologist friend of mine who worked at St Thomas Hospital (London). Explained to me that the virus can pop out variants here in the UK that are exactly the same as those that occur in different parts of the world.

The upshot is a bit unnerving. It theorises that variants don't need to be imported, but occur here at the same time as in Brazil,  because of the  virus's natural mutation cycles.

Anyway,that 's the theory. The implications for border control are massive. The variants are not stopped from getting in. They are here already, or will eventually be here.

Thank you for that.

 

What is a known fact is that viruses evolve over time but at a much more accelerated rate, which is also compounded by the fact that millions of people now have had it. When it comes to general evolution we also know there is parallel and convergent evolution where specific biological DNA traits can appear independently thousands of miles apart, even when there is no direct ancestral link.