China, How Worried Should We Be?

[frigate]

On 30/01/2021 at 01:33, Jim117 said:

Some time back I read an article written by a defence analyst. He stated that China’s expansion of its military and also its hacking program could be traced back to the Gulf wars. Namely they were shocked at the ease with which modern forces steamrolled the obsolete soviet era kit used by both Iraq and China. The rush to modernise began. Fast forward to the present and we have the following: China’s fast expanding navy is to include amphibious assault ships, an offensive rather than defensive weapon. Captains in coast guard vessels can now open fire at their own discretion. Chinese warplanes have repeatedly violated Taiwanese airspace and just to finish up China has told Taiwan that independence means war. Meanwhile Biden has reiterated support for Taiwan. This isn’t boding well in my view, thoughts?

A good starting point would be for the west to recognise Taiwan as a sovereign independent country. 
The Taiwanese people don’t want to be part of China. Look what happened in Hong Kong - a very sad place now.
Taiwan has done remarkably well with containing COVID 19 - WHO still won’t allow Taiwan a seat at their table, which incidentally is heavily influenced by China.
disgraceful.

[frigate]

15 hours ago, apelike said:

Or maybe it's all just a show!

Xi Jinping is only 67, and 'President for Life'. 

Wonder what his goals are for the remainder of his life - what does he want his legacy to be? 

HK and Taiwan - the 'domino theory' comes to mind here. 

And how united are the Chinese people behind him? 

[tinfoilhat]

2 minutes ago, frigate said:

Xi Jinping is only 67, and 'President for Life'. 

Wonder what his goals are for the remainder of his life - what does he want his legacy to be? 

HK and Taiwan - the 'domino theory' comes to mind here. 

And how united are the Chinese people behind him? 

OK, past those two, who would be next?

 

China arent big enough to start knocking over anything bigger than city states on their own border. 

[frigate]

14 hours ago, Anna B said:

There's no doubt China is going to have to take on America in a fight for supremacy sooner or later, but that doesn't necessarily mean a war. It could be through trade, technology, cyber attacks and spying, or pure brinkmanship. China has the upper hand in its control of the people, America is probably more skilled in worldliness, manipulation and dodgy dealing. It's also got a massive ego and its status to protect so it's not going to back down easily. 

 

Just think what they could achieve if they worked together.

The US and countless other democracies have been involved in trade embargoes by peaceful means by China and cyber attacks for quite some time - they are now the norm. China is aware that it would be unwise to attempt to take Taiwan or any other democratic nation by using its military. We are aware of that also and we and other countries have been keeping up with the events between us and doing things to counteract those behaviors from them. Now that there has been a change in the US administration, the options for China, I believe, have now increased and the threat of military means could now become an ideal tool for China to either take Taiwan or begin a new Cold War.

 

I suspect the Chinese people are very united - with the exception of some who have access to alternative news or information via social media or are by nature cynical, they know no other truth than what they hear from the CCP...........they have been trained to hear and believe.

I also suspect even the cynical ones will fall into line when pushed to do so. Tiananmen Square proved that.

 

 

but the  logistics of taking a well enforced home island with 23 million people and a military reserve of 1.65 million are way way beyond Chinas Naval capacity. Crossing an ocean , and invading is very difficult , It would make Afghanistan look like a cake walk. 
On top of this ,  there would be the complete boycotting world wide of all china's goods and supplies.
Even if China gained air superiority , [ possible but unlikely ] China does not even have navel aircraft [ Russian copy fighters] that can take off with a bomb load from the deck of there 1 operational aircraft carrier .  China has no low orbit satellites for target guidance so there over the horizon radar would last about 30 minutes . 

[El Cid]

5 hours ago, andyofborg said:

The America of 20-30 years ago possibly, like a lot of the west, the America of today is a shadow of it's former self. 

 

Dictatorships used fake news against the West, with Trump and the storming of the capitol building in Washington DC, fake news is no longer required.

[Anna B]

On 21/02/2021 at 18:01, El Cid said:

Dictatorships used fake news against the West, with Trump and the storming of the capitol building in Washington DC, fake news is no longer required.

If you think only dictatorships use fake news, I think you should look again.

America doesn't have a particularly good record even in the good times. Many of the people are brainwashed IMO, and overly patriotic in the extreme. I now think of America in decline as something of a wounded tiger, and even more dangerous if the wrong people are in charge.

 

I personally think that both Communism and Neoliberalism have proven failures, so maybe something new has to be considered somewhere between the two. The future is new uncharted territory and is going to require all sorts of adaptations and modifications to make it work for everybody. I see co-operation as the way forward. This may be the chance to do that, and hope that we've finally moved on from trying to blast everyone and everything to bits in the name of National supremacy. 

[hauxwell]

On 21/02/2021 at 18:01, El Cid said:

Dictatorships used fake news against the West, with Trump and the storming of the capitol building in Washington DC, fake news is no longer required.

I don’t know much about China using fake news against the West, but the American President of the time Bush junior and Tony Blair used it when we were told about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.  Even after the weapons inspectors said there was none.  

 

They lied and people died.

 

[frigate]

On 23/02/2021 at 18:24, hauxwell said:

I don’t know much about China using fake news against the West, but the American President of the time Bush junior and Tony Blair used it when we were told about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.  Even after the weapons inspectors said there was none.  

 

They lied and people died.

 

It is well documented that Saddam used indigenous chemical weapons-weapons of mass destruction- on his own citizens, the Kurds, as well as on Iranian troops during the Iran-Iraq war. Iraq had a 'dual use' infrastructure that allowed them to make chemical weapons fairly easily. Yes, it was an  intelligence failure not finding deployed weapons..but it is also fantasy that Saddam was not a threat to the U.S. and his neighbors.

 

 

[frigate]

On 23/02/2021 at 16:27, Anna B said:

If you think only dictatorships use fake news, I think you should look again.

America doesn't have a particularly good record even in the good times. Many of the people are brainwashed IMO, and overly patriotic in the extreme. I now think of America in decline as something of a wounded tiger, and even more dangerous if the wrong people are in charge.

 

I personally think that both Communism and Neoliberalism have proven failures, so maybe something new has to be considered somewhere between the two. The future is new uncharted territory and is going to require all sorts of adaptations and modifications to make it work for everybody. I see co-operation as the way forward. This may be the chance to do that, and hope that we've finally moved on from trying to blast everyone and everything to bits in the name of National supremacy. 

There are main four countries, which self- identify themselves as the enemies of the West, meaning the liberal democracy as we understand it. Those countries are: China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. Every one of them operates along the lines of messianic ideology, based on hatred, resentment and truculence towards the "collective West".  To pretend that this is not so is naive in the extreme.  

 

[andyofborg]

5 minutes ago, frigate said:

It is well documented that Saddam used indigenous chemical weapons-weapons of mass destruction- on his own citizens, the Kurds, as well as on Iranian troops during the Iran-Iraq war. Iraq had a 'dual use' infrastructure that allowed them to make chemical weapons fairly easily. Yes, it was an  intelligence failure not finding deployed weapons..but it is also fantasy that Saddam was not a threat to the U.S. and his neighbors.

 

 

I don't think anyone doubts the chemical weapons but the existing military presence in and around iraq appeared to be largely preventing their use.  I seem to recall, the invasion of iraq was predicated on the development of nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them. That case appears to have been over-stated.  

 

Regardless of the rights and wrongs of invading Iraq, it distracted from the military operation in Afghanistan and that was a major error.