Ukraine: Invasion Imminent?

[Anna B]

7 minutes ago, crazyhorse said:

It is impossible to totally avoid Chinese made stuff...but there are still many things made in the UK, America and Europe if you want to try and avoid China as much as you can.

Spent an hour looking at precision screwdrivers the other day...and went for the German made ones, although they were twice the price.

I like Germany and they like us.

Not the only thing I have got from Germany recently either. They seem good for tools, washing machines etc.

Also Taiwan is a better bet than China...at least Taiwan is a democracy and aligned with the West.

Having said that we do still make good stuff in the UK as well.

If you hunt around, you would be surprised how much stuff we still make.

A fair bit of the stuff on my bike is manufactured over in Lancashire for example.

Not sure where the aluminium comes from...but it does at least support some UK manufacturing jobs.

Beware.

I saw some expensive 'Irish Linen' napkins the other day. Investigation revealed they were made in China.

Also it's impossible to buy British goods in many cases. A fair bit of stuff that lays claim to being British is just assembled here but made 100% of foreign bits.

Edited March 14, 2022 by Anna B

[crookesey]

You don’t have to walk far to see boarded up shops that you can recall being very busy. They will most likely be re figured as commercial premises that don’t rely on a profit on stock and reduce staff levels, the days of retail as we know it have passed into history. The one thing that folk don’t notice is the rental, rateable, insurance and energy costs on shops.

[The_DADDY]

12 hours ago, hackey lad said:

Absolute rubbish . Shelves empty. It’s people like you that start it all 

Not sure where my reply went but. .

Read my post again but read it properly before jumping off the deep end.

[crazyhorse]

16 minutes ago, Anna B said:

Beware.

I saw some expensive 'Irish Linen' napkins the other day. Investigation revealed they were made in China.

Also it's impossible to buy British goods in many cases. A fair bit of stuff that lays claim to being British is just assembled here but made 100% of foreign bits.

Drifting off topic a little...but I doubt we will ever see a country that is completely self sufficient, right down to mining it's own raw materials.

We do live in a globalised world.

Also you are right...a lot is simply assembled here...but more than you think is also manufactured here...especially in lower volume, higher end niche areas.

My brake calipers are not screwed together from bits from elsewhere...but milled on a CNC machine over the hill ...albeit probably from aluminium ingots sourced from a foreign smelter.

There is some UK input to the final product beyond screwing things together, which creates UK jobs.

As a nation, we are not incapable of researching, designing and manufacturing our own products...it is just the economics of manufacturing labour intensive products works against us currently.

One hope for the future of Western manufacturing is generic factories, automated to produce components from quickly changeable software scripts using 3D printing techniques as and when required.

This would enable factories to respond quickly to local customer demand by changing the software instructions on what the automated machines create.

This would cut down on global supply chains and make Western automated factories much more agile and faster in creating what Westerners need...than relying on some Chinese factory, tooling up and shipping stuff in on a container ship a year down the line.

This would give Western manufacturers a responsiveness edge over Chinese competitors and the automation would reduce costs.

It is not just manufacturing. In my particular industry (software services), although a lot of software development was offshored a few years ago...a fair bit has come back in house.

This is purely because offsourced developers produced technically good code that unfortunately did not meet customer needs.

Why were customer needs not understood?

Because the offshored developers didn't have the same cultural understanding of what UK customers wanted to see in their products.

[Jim117]

16 minutes ago, crazyhorse said:

Drifting off topic a little...but I doubt we will ever see a country that is completely self sufficient, right down to mining it's own raw materials.

We do live in a globalised world.

Also you are right...a lot is simply assembled here...but more than you think is also manufactured here...especially in lower volume, higher end niche areas.

My brake calipers are not screwed together from bits from elsewhere...but milled on a CNC machine over the hill ...albeit probably from aluminium ingots sourced from a foreign smelter.

There is some UK input to the final product beyond screwing things together, which creates UK jobs.

As a nation, we are not incapable of researching, designing and manufacturing our own products...it is just the economics of manufacturing labour intensive products works against us currently.

One hope for the future of Western manufacturing is generic factories, automated to produce components from quickly changeable software scripts using 3D printing techniques as and when required.

This would enable factories to respond quickly to local customer demand by changing the software instructions on what the automated machines create.

This would cut down on global supply chains and make Western automated factories much more agile and faster in creating what Westerners need...than relying on some Chinese factory, tooling up and shipping stuff in on a container ship a year down the line.

This would give Western manufacturers a responsiveness edge over Chinese competitors and the automation would reduce costs.

It is not just manufacturing. In my particular industry (software services), although a lot of software development was offshored a few years ago...a fair bit has come back in house.

This is purely because offsourced developers produced technically good code that unfortunately did not meet customer needs.

Why were customer needs not understood?

Because the offshored developers didn't have the same cultural understanding of what UK customers wanted to see in their products.

My lad was showing me some stuff online and I was surprised how far the tech has come. Even regular people are printing stuff up, sometimes to use as patterns for casting metal items. Btw if anyone does need aluminium ingots there’s some in my shed from when we were playing around with a backyard gas forge during lockdown.

[Dromedary]

5 hours ago, L00b said:

I will welcome your explainer about why drawing a parallel between-

 

Russia’s fascistic crackdown on media and freedom of expression/protest in the wake of their “special operation” going badly, and 

 

Nazi Germany’s well-documented renewed crackdown on media and freedom of expression/protest in the wake of their Stalingrad defeat,

 

is “crooked thinking”.

But thats not what you said and not what I replied too.

 

You actually said "Putin cannot possibly turn 2022 Russia into 1942 Germany within a couple of months. Something’s gotta give"...... 

 

What I was saying was basically there is no comparison to that and what Germany did as Putin does not seem to want to do that.

 

Just to add you then give a what if... with this.

 

"What happens if Hitler (Putin) decides go beyond Poland (Ukraine)?"

Edited March 14, 2022 by Dromedary

[trastrick]

22 hours ago, Chekhov said:

I don't necessarily agree with you. The Ukrainian's are much more motivated and, thanks to the western countries military help, an almost inexhaustible supply of very advanced weapons.

Putin has nuclear weapons. And probably chemical and  biological weapons.

 

He will not lose a war against Ukraine.

 

There'll be some kind of mutual, or even forced settlement.

 

It would have happened sooner, but for the armchair warriors exhorting them to fight to the death against Putin.

 

Such a waste of lives.

[Dromedary]

5 hours ago, cgksheff said:

Let's look at exactly what Putin has said:

 

"I would now like to say something very important for those who may be tempted to interfere in these developments from the outside. No matter who tries to stand in our way or all the more so create threats for our country and our people, they must know that Russia will respond immediately, and the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history. No matter how the events unfold, we are ready. All the necessary decisions in this regard have been taken. I hope that my words will be heard."

 

Add to this the unprecedented action of raising their nuclear military units/system to their maximum level of alert.

 

Interpret that as you choose.

I have and so far cant see him threatening to use Nukes. BTW What is the source of the above text in quotes? 

 

Sorry but this is from the Guardian but as that seems popular on here I will put the link up.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/28/russia-nuclear-weapons-putin-threat

[trastrick]

That "bully" is your enemy.

 

Like looking over a schoolyard wall and seeing a thug beat up an infant.

 

And cheering the little lad on!

 

Then going home for your tea and watching it on't  telly!

[L00b]

1 hour ago, Dromedary said:

But thats not what you said and not what I replied too.

 

You actually said "Putin cannot possibly turn 2022 Russia into 1942 Germany within a couple of months. Something’s gotta give"...... 

 

What I was saying was basically there is no comparison to that and what Germany did as Putin does not seem to want to do that.

Beg to differ.

 

In the context of the post,

Quote

(…)

Unlike North Koreans and Iranians, the Russians have known western standards of living, culture, consumption, aspirations…take it all away from them (as we are already doing, tbh) but harder still and much faster. Then see how long a civil war takes to light up / the oligarchs and generals invite Putin for ‘special tea’.
 

Putin cannot possibly turn 2022 Russia into 1942 Germany within a couple of months. Something’s gotta give (…)

 

my comment was about Putin turning Russia into a fascist state against its citizens, rivalling Nazi Germany’s efforts against its own citizens BITD.

 

Nothing about what Putin ‘wants to do’, in a broader geopolitical sense (although his imperialist ambitions, judging from his TV speech and soundbites since, are just about up there with Hitler’s Lebensraum).
 

In the space of 3 weeks, give or take, Putin has moved from a relatively ‘free’ movement of ideas and expressions amongst Russians (but for *serious* political opposition à la Navalny) on domestic and foreign platforms, to a complete lockdown on/about “anything Ukraine”, lockout of foreign platforms exceeding China’s, with Russians running the risk of 15 years in Siberia for daring to whisper that the “special military operation” is wrong, personal computers/phones/tablets searchable on the spot without warrants, etc, and mass media propaganda rivalling anything ever made by Leni Riefenstahl on Goebbels’ orders.
 

I mean, we’re close to the ‘crime of thought’ level over there, by now.

1 hour ago, Dromedary said:

Just to add you then give a what if... with this.

 

"What happens if Hitler (Putin) decides go beyond Poland (Ukraine)?"

That was a rethorical question, in reply to another poster’s “what if” question (also quoted in my post), nothing to do with your post/the above.

 

Nobody else has to accept the historical parallels that I’m seeing and opining about.

 

But you’ll have a real hard time trying to convince me that Putin is not waging an imperial war of aggression on trumped-up premises, hot on the heels of landgrabbing bits and pieces of peripheral countries through proxy cultural reasons and, in Europe, the last country which did exactly that, and controlled its population and the narrative about it to such a coercive extent, was Germany.

 

We can either try and do something about it early *this time*.

Or try and see if appeasement works *this time*.

Edited March 14, 2022 by L00b