Ukraine: Invasion Imminent?

[Kidorry]

 

 

I got this letter from a friend of mine.

Не спится мне, в глазах мой дом, моя квартира, окна, двери, любовь и смех царили в нем, сейчас же грусть и боль потери. Живу в чужой я стороне, а сердце к дому так стремится, здесь все чужое, не моё, поэтому мне так не спится. Мечтаю в город свой вернуться, увидеть близких и родных, от страха, ужаса очнуться, как будто не было войны! Пускай сейчас мой город плачет, но мы вернемся, будем жить, разрухи ничего не значат, мы сможем всё восстановить! Мой Мариуполь, сильный город, ты стойко выдержал войну, все прожил ты и смерть и голод, и грязь и боль и нищиту! Назло всему мы вместе будем и все пройдёт, как страшный сон, но то, что было не забудем, воздастся всем, кто винен в том!!!!!

 

 

I cannot sleep, in my eyes my house, my apartment, windows, doors, love and laughter reigned in it, now, sadness and the pain of loss. I live in a foreign side, and my heart is so eager for home, everything here is alien, not mine, so I don`t sleep like that. I dream of returning to my city, seeing my relatives and friends, waking up from fear, horror, as if there were no war! Let my city cry now, but we will return, we will live, the devastation means nothing, we will be able to restore everything! My Mariupol, a strong city, you steadfastly withstood the war, you lived everything and death and hunger, and dirt and pain and poverty! To spite everything we will be together and everything will pass like a terrible dream, but what was not forgiven will be repaid to all who are guilty.!!!!

Edited April 28, 2022 by Kidorry
added text

[L00b]

2 hours ago, harvey19 said:

You have not answered my questions unfortunately.

Your questions were stupid unfortunately.

[harvey19]

Sorry about that.

Edited April 27, 2022 by harvey19

[L00b]

On 14/03/2022 at 15:49, L00b said:

Transnistria first. Moldova is not in NATO.

 

<…>

In this week’s news, for those who did not see these developments yet:

 

Russian troops advanced north in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and captured a small settlement. Things are getting serious in unrecognized Transnistria. Explosions rocked the village of Mayak and two radio antennas were destroyed as the result. Moldova have increased the level of combat readiness, unrecognized Transnistria have started to build checkpoints and barricades at important roads and cities. Russian soldiers stationed in Transnistria have been reportedly put on full combat alert.

[harvey19]

What would be a satisfactory conclusion to this situation not only for Russia and Ukraine but worldwide ?

Edited April 28, 2022 by harvey19

[Padders]

2 minutes ago, harvey19 said:

What would be a satisfactory conclusion to this situation not only for Russia and Ukraine but worldwide ?

Get rid of Putin....

[L00b]

42 minutes ago, Padders said:

Get rid of Putin....

Bit more than that, but it would be a *very* good start indeed.

 

Get rid of Putin and every last one of his regime supporters, top to bottom.

Get Russia generally to set off on the same ‘cleaning up its act’ drive, which Ukraine embarked upon in the 2010s.

Get Russia to withdraw all forces from Ukraine (incl.Donbass & Crimea), Belarus, Transnistria, Syria, certain African countries + all the other older ones (Chechnya, Georgia, etc).

Get Ukraine as repaired as possible, as soon as possible, with a Marshall Plan-like 10 year support drive by ‘the West’ collectively, to turn into a socio-economic peer for Poland, Slovakia, etc.

Replace NATO by an EU-based defence pact with less reliance on US & UK.

Maintain the drive away from RU oil+gas, currently forced by geopolitics, towards sustainable energy generation (likely with top-up nuclear generation capacity), after conflict situation ends.

 

Off the top of my head, for now 😉

[RJRB]

All desirable aims from a Western European perspective but about as likely as regime change in North Korea.

Liz Truss says that Russia should not only retreat from its position in Ukraine but also Crimea.That is not going to happen and the escalation of threat from Putin and co  is the result.

At this stage the best outcome that I can see is a settlement that draws new borders to the east and south of Ukraine.

 

 

[cgksheff]

1 hour ago, L00b said:

Bit more than that, but it would be a *very* good start indeed.

 

Get rid of Putin and every last one of his regime supporters, top to bottom.

Get Russia generally to set off on the same ‘cleaning up its act’ drive, which Ukraine embarked upon in the 2010s.

Get Russia to withdraw all forces from Ukraine (incl.Donbass & Crimea), Belarus, Transnistria, Syria, certain African countries + all the other older ones (Chechnya, Georgia, etc).

Get Ukraine as repaired as possible, as soon as possible, with a Marshall Plan-like 10 year support drive by ‘the West’ collectively, to turn into a socio-economic peer for Poland, Slovakia, etc.

Replace NATO by an EU-based defence pact with less reliance on US & UK.

Maintain the drive away from RU oil+gas, currently forced by geopolitics, towards sustainable energy generation (likely with top-up nuclear generation capacity), after conflict situation ends.

 

Off the top of my head, for now 😉

It may not be popular with some, but part of the deal would have to be helping Russia to get their economy back on track after getting rid of the nutters.
 

[L00b]

1 hour ago, RJRB said:

(…)

At this stage the best outcome that I can see is a settlement that draws new borders to the east and south of Ukraine.

An outcome which, likely as it initially appeared, grew ever less realistic as Russia soon extended its aggression beyond military targets… and which, yesterday, got still less realistic, as the German government got its marching orders from the Bundestag on the issue of military support.

21 minutes ago, cgksheff said:

It may not be popular with some, but part of the deal would have to be helping Russia to get their economy back on track after getting rid of the nutters.

I agree…to conditional extent: as was the case with Germany and Japan post-WW2, that sort of initiative should have a whole load of further strings attached, than the headline bits outlined in my earlier post.
 

Starting with full-fat war crime trials in The Hague for every Russian involved, from near or afar, across the whole political and military chain of command, right the way down to the grunts. Not forgetting quasi-Russians helpers, like Graham Philips.

Edited April 28, 2022 by L00b