Ukraine: Invasion Imminent?

[geared]

How will the West act if Russia surrenders to Ukraine?

How will Ukraine act towards those who have supported Russia?

[altus]

3 hours ago, trastrick said:

We have been,  and are, in favor of an immediate enforced, cease fire, and Internationally supervised settlement negotiations before more lives are lost in an endless war, which the military experts say could go on for years!

How are you proposing to enforce an immediate Russian cease fire and force them to attend internationally supervised settlement negotiations? How are you proposing Russia should be made to accept and abide by the results of such negotiations?

[altus]

3 hours ago, trastrick said:

Even if we believe that of his entire Administration, most of who were thrown out in January for corruption, that he is the only uncorrupted politician left in the Ukraine :).  he will remain in his role of international "Braveheart" adored by his fans in the the West.

Going on about corruption in Ukraine is a poor strategy for you. One of the reasons Ukrainians want to align themselves with the west is to get away from the influence of the kleptocratic Russian state where corruption is built into the heart of the system. Zelensky was elected on a platform of tackling corruption and whilst he hasn't had a magic wand to wave and make it all disappear immediately, he has reduced it and continues to do so.

 

What is Putin doing about corruption in Russia?

[Guest]

13 minutes ago, altus said:

How are you proposing to enforce an immediate Russian cease fire and force them to attend internationally supervised settlement negotiations? How are you proposing Russia should be made to accept and abide by the results of such negotiations?

This looks like being a very interesting answer from trastrick.  I'm waiting with bated breath.

[Guest]

3 hours ago, trastrick said:

Some more perspective.

 

In the very first permitted election held in Britain after the War, the voters "threw the bums out".

Who's description is this "the bums"           The 2 biggest corrupt political  "bums"  I have ever seen in my life are Boris Johnson and Donald Trump and I know you are a big admirer of Trump.

Zelensky is the consummate politician, and is no doubt aware of this, and he has stated No elections until the war is over.

That is correct under Ukrainian law.

Even if we believe that of his entire Administration, most of who were thrown out in January for corruption, that he is the only uncorrupted politician left in the Ukraine :).  he will remain in his role of international "Braveheart" adored by his fans in the the West.

That's what's stirring your gravy.  You don't like the bloke so it's really annoying when the majority of the people do.   His popularity makes no difference to people such as you and I.

Some see a conflict of interest there. will he be in any hurry to end the war, and face a war weary electorate? 

That's just your surmising what happens later and not worth discussing unless it happens.

Already the West's strategy of a Zelenski blank cheque, is coming under increased scrutiny!

It would be quite obvious to any thinking person that people will keep tabs on how much it is all costing and also that there will be people like you who will never stop moaning about it

Despite this, I expect the situation to carry on as it is at the moment and you will not dissuade me or other people who hold the same views from my support.

You are in a minority again    -    surprising how you always manage to be on the wrong side.   

Move to Russia,  I suppose that nice Mr Putin will make you welcome.      At least,  if you lived there,  you would be in the majority for a change.

 

 

[RJRB]

3 hours ago, altus said:

How are you proposing to enforce an immediate Russian cease fire and force them to attend internationally supervised settlement negotiations? How are you proposing Russia should be made to accept and abide by the results of such negotiations?

I think you have got the wrong idea,

Putin can remain seated at the head of his 50 feet conference table whilst Zelensky is frogmarched up to the other end,pen in hand, and then the settlement determined by other parties will be signed and accepted by all.

That should sort it

[altus]

42 minutes ago, RJRB said:

I think you have got the wrong idea,

Putin can remain seated at the head of his 50 feet conference table whilst Zelensky is frogmarched up to the other end,pen in hand, and then the settlement determined by other parties will be signed and accepted by all.

That should sort it

Oh, I don't have the wrong idea at all. I just want to see if trastrick understands the practical implications of what he's proposing.

[geared]

14 minutes ago, altus said:

Oh, I don't have the wrong idea at all. I just want to see if trastrick understands the practical implications of what he's proposing.

 

Do you really think someone that uses the phrase "New World Order"  understands much??

 

It's such an idiotic, worn out phrase you might as well nail a sign saying 'Moron' to your forehead.

 

 

Edited July 15, 2023 by geared

[Magilla]

20 hours ago, altus said:

How are you proposing to enforce an immediate Russian cease fire and force them to attend internationally supervised settlement negotiations?

 

How are you proposing Russia should be made to accept and abide by the results of such negotiations?

In that parallel universe where every claim they've made in this thread no longer applies... clearly!

[trastrick]

Ah. 

I see the usual gang of trolls, naysayers and serial insulters, are out in force today!

 

A veritable moving feast! A circle jerk of the like minded.

 

Where to start?

 

Maybe with my first laugh of the day.

 

Orgy, our Master of Inconsistency, who alway manages to straddle both sides of every issue (Just in case)   claims:

 

"But I,  and some others,  don't take much notice of what you say".

 

Then:

 

"This looks like being a very interesting answer from trastrick.  I'm waiting with bated breath".

 

You may have to wait a little longer!

 

As for the "some others", the me too clapping seals.

 

Takes me back to my days of Project Management, when the gang that couldn't shoot straight, dismissed my strategic plans to get the job done, on time and on budget!

 

Gave them some bullet point deliverables, timelines, etc. "Can't be done, too simplistic, to much opposition, wouldn't work, what about........"?

 

Fortunately, they weren't the ones that hired me on the basis of my reputation  They actually WERE the problem!

 

So, with my own hand picked team, the projects got completed. Everybody happy, except the naysayers.  A few, who were smart enough not to be seen as losers, tried to work both sides of the aisle, (Just in case!), and came on board,when it looked like it was going to be successful outcome after all!

 

Human nature! 

 

So to those naysayers who requested my opinion here, I will not lay out a user manual detailing my methodology (I'm retired )  to deal with a very complicated problem, and feeding the Bears, just to watch them peeing on it,

 

I will just repost what I posted months ago, in broad strokes.

 

************

 

Here's the deal. (he puts on his Management Consultant hat.:)

 

Man made problems ALWAYS have a man made solution.

 

Ideally, with some foresight, and common sense they can be avoided. But like when Aunty's antique vase is knocked over and lies in pieces on the floor, the blame, if any, should be left for later. The point is if and how it can be put back together.

 

There's only one sure way this problem can be ended, short of WW3.

(WW3 could see Russia, China, the Middle East, with possible support or at least neutrality from India, Africa, South America, on one side, with the U.S. Europe and Australia on the other) This is a non starter.

 

Another option is to arm the the Ukrainians to the teeth and hope they can push Russia out of all of Ukraine. This is highly unlikely because Russia will not give up Crimea, or the claim to the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, where most see themselves as Russians.

(See "Locals in Ukraine breakaway regions recount short-lived joy, hope.
"Residents of Ukraine’s breakaway regions recount their joy over Russia’s recognition of their independence"
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/1/residents-of-ukraines-breakaways-recount-short-lived-joy-hope

Another non starter.

 

I believe that both sides realize, as the body count, destruction and atrocities of war pile up without end, that an eventual negotiated settlement is the only way out. I also believe that the current war is the historically normal strategy, in disputed territory, for the belligerents to gain and control as much territory as they can, before that inevitable day comes to pass.

 

(Here I will add U,N, enforced Partition, and U.N. Supervised elections in the disputed Regions)

 

Possession and control is a powerful negotiating tool when it comes to a final settlement.

 

It needs the International Community to support the negotiation process. But the Negotiators, need to be credible, rational, and open to both sides of the issue.

The U.S. and Britain have eliminated themselves from any credibiity as "Peace Negotiators", by their obvious support for one party and their somewhat childish and impotent name calling, of the other, which makes it personal, political EGO vs EGO. The West is seen as a belligerent, which it obviously is.

 

Cooler heads, Turkey, and now the U.N. are speaking to both sides in the early stages of peace talks, and there is the matter of Russian Oil and Gas which NATO don't want to give up, so there is maybe some additional pragmatic leverage to bring them on board, too.

 

It will happen eventually, so I'm in favor of ramping up the negotiations to the highest priority for the world to end the futile slaughter of the Ukrainian people. Cities can be rebuilt, but you can't bring back the dead!

 

As I have been posting here, it is already too late, and every day it is getting worse.

 

Truth is we share this world with all kinds of people who don't see the West, as model world citizens, and unless we wage an all out world war against them to show them our "moral superiority". we will have to co-exist with them.

 

Co-existence means trade and cultural exchanges that are more effective in changing hearts and minds, than hurling names, and bombs at each other.

 

I'm an optimist by nature, and I believe totalitarianism is slowly but surely on the way out, and the more the younger people are allowed to see the stark differences freedom makes in Democracy, I believe they'll eventually choose freedom. But it will take strong and consistent Leadership from the Western democracies, which currently is in short supply.

 

************

 

Also see my post #2592

 

 

Edited July 16, 2023 by trastrick