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Ukraine: Invasion Imminent?


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9 minutes ago, Delayed said:

I know everyone is saying that we are on a knife-edge in terms of World War 3 but serious question to those more in the know...

 

Is it all Posturing or Dooms-Day predictions by the media?  Or are we seriously that close to WWIII?  

I absolutely don’t profess to be “more in the know”.
 

WW3 pre-supposes the conflict to spill over beyond Ukraine. That’s not happened, nor does it look likely to happen, thankfully. But flashpoints are near, and some EU/NATO states are likely to do an awful lot more militarily to help Ukraine, if it looks to start losing to Russia. Especially Baltics and Poland.

 

Many professional pundits put it down to posturing (the recent forces status upgrade by Russia is no.2 out of a scale of 4). The US or GB intelligence service recently confirmed (a couple hours ago?) that there hasn’t been any change or displacement of nuclear forces in Russia.
 

But, and of course, what are the chances Putin does something truly stupid out of desperation? And given that, what are the chances ‘someone’ in his inner circle blows his brain out before the nuke order gets given/carried out?

 

The biggest problem, as I see it, is how much of the Russian population is -and stays- sufficiently gaslit by Putin’s regime, for Putin and his circle to believe they still have enough of a power base to continue upping the ante. And on that score, all the noises coming out of informed sources (in Russia and/or still with access to Russia Today and the like), point to Russian propaganda going an intergalactic mile beyond the usual.

Edited by L00b
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8 minutes ago, Delayed said:

I know everyone is saying that we are on a knife-edge in terms of World War 3 but serious question to those more in the know...

 

Is it all Posturing or Dooms-Day predictions by the media?  Or are we seriously that close to WWIII?  

 

 

its all willy waving. Even Putin understands if he fires nuclear weapons at us or Ukraine or whoever, he will get a volley straight back by other countries and so destroy his own country

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2 minutes ago, L00b said:

I absolutely don’t profess to be “more in the know”.
 

WW3 pre-supposes the conflict to spill over beyond Ukraine. That’s not happened, nor does it look likely to happen, thankfully. But flashpoints are near, and some EU/NATO states are likely to do an awful lot more militarily to help Ukraine, if it looks to start losing to Russia.

 

Many professional pundits put it down to posturing (the recent forces status upgrade by Russia is no.2 out of a scale of 4). The US or GB intelligence service recently confirmed (a couple hours ago?) that there hasn’t been any change or displacement of nuclear forces in Russia.
 

But, and of course, what are the chances Putin does something truly stupid out of desperation? And given that, what are the chances ‘someone’ in his inner circle blows his brain out before the nuke order gets given/carried out?

Thank you,

 

It's hard to read the media/online articles and get a clear sense of where the world actually stands.  At the moment, the message seems to be WW3 is looming and NATO countries would be on the losing side given the vast arsenal that Russia apparently has.  

Edited by Delayed
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28 minutes ago, butlers said:

....

....

 

One 20 year old from Ukraine who came to Sheffield to attend university who's parents are in Kiev and he said he had not slept in two days 

....

....

 

 

Not being critical, as I was equally unaware until the start of this crisis, but:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/KyivNotKiev

 

🇺🇦 👍

 

 

 

 

 

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Last Saturday LBC's Natasha Devon invited Dr. Rory Finnan,  Associate Professor of Ukranian Studies at Cambridge University, to answer listeners' pertinant questions on Ukraine. He is regarded as the UK's leading expert on the country and its surrounding area. A link to the programme is here (available for a few days), about 21 mins in.

 

https://www.globalplayer.com/catchup/lbc/uk/episodes/2zGxzahnSzHKEarM7co5XYJF8t/

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3 hours ago, crookesey said:

 

I was born after WW2 but can remember my relatives talking about it.  

 

WW1 was suppose to be the war to end all wars but the politicians got that wrong.  I’m in no doubt if there is a WW3 then this will be the war to end all wars and possibly mankind.

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10 minutes ago, Delayed said:

Thank you,

 

It's hard to read the media/online articles and get a clear sense of where the world actually stands.  At the moment, the message seems to be WW3 is looming and NATO countries would be on the losing side given the vast arsenal that Russia apparently has.  

Personally, I don’t do media/online “articles”, they’re too slow/late for chronicling developments, and insufficiently factual (or abstracting too much). Some are very good for analysis, that said. But they’re few and far between, amongst the volume of opinion, moralising, warmongering (etc.) pieces

 

There’s a vast ‘trove’ of people I follow on Twitter, mostly OSINT/ELINT aggregators, journalists + foreign volunteers + local army/officials on the ground, beside official government accounts (NATO and others), and I paint/keep an overall picture from all of it.

 

There’s no doubt Russia has more nukes than everybody else. But you know, if these start flying, it wouldn’t really matter whether 5000 warheads is better than 1500 warheads. Everybody would lose irrespective, Russians included. ‘More nukes’ is hardly leverage, when the smallest nuclear club member already has enough nukes to bomb Russia back to the stone age irrespective.

Edited by L00b
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