This Could Be The Biggest Recession Since The 1930s

[L00b]

35 minutes ago, Chekhov said:

GORDON BENNET ! Has anyone been into Wilko recently ?

Loads of shops have empty shelves but they must be one of the worst and it's been like that for a year or so (getting steadily  worse though). I even remember, at the back end of last year, asking one of the staff it they were closing down (because they had so many empty shelves). She said "no, we just can't get the stock".

 

This is frightening.....

I doubt that has anything to do with a recession, upcoming or otherwise. 
 

For supply chain problems, look at stock provenance, and that should then let you track the bottlenecks.
 

Assuming it’s mostly Chinese stuff, then low productivity from serial lockdowns in China, reduction in transport volume available (boats and containers), increase in transport costs, UK drivers/HGV shortages and suppression of cabotage by EU drivers/HGV.

[Chekhov]

12 minutes ago, L00b said:

I doubt that has anything to do with a recession, upcoming or otherwise. 

For supply chain problems, look at stock provenance, and that should then let you track the bottlenecks.

Assuming it’s mostly Chinese stuff, then low productivity from serial lockdowns in China, reduction in transport volume available (boats and containers), increase in transport costs, UK drivers/HGV shortages and suppression of cabotage by EU drivers/HGV.

It's all linked, and it's all bad news......

[L00b]

26 minutes ago, Chekhov said:

It's all linked, and it's all bad news......

It’s the consequence of doing away with globalism.
 

Which is itself the consequence of allowing ever more nationalists and autocrats into power.

 

Cast a look back to the 1930s for a preview of where it all ends. Same causes, same political recuperation by vested interests and their populist ‘strongmen’ politicians, same eventual consequences.

[hackey lad]

1 hour ago, Chekhov said:

GORDON BENNET ! Has anyone been into Wilko recently ?

Loads of shops have empty shelves but they must be one of the worst and it's been like that for a year or so (getting steadily  worse though). I even remember, at the back end of last year, asking one of the staff it they were closing down (because they had so many empty shelves). She said "no, we just can't get the stock".

 

This is frightening.....

What do you want from Wilkinsons. I will look for them when I pop into our local one ?

[Chekhov]

This post is also in the Ukraine thread but is equally relevant here :

 

UK fires up coal power plant as gas prices soar

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58469238

Warm, still, autumn weather has meant wind farms have not generated as much power as normal, while soaring prices have made it too costly to rely on gas.

 

It is interesting because it is dated 7 September 2021.

More proof that, whilst the Ukraine war has definitely contributed to high energy bills, it was happening (albeit to a lesser extent) BEFORE the war.

 

42 minutes ago, hackey lad said:

What do you want from Wilkinsons. I will look for them when I pop into our local one ?

Meths, for cleaning, but I may need it for other things the way things are going..... !

Interestingly I got some from Home Bargains, and their shelves were not as empty as Wilko's, which could be worrying for Wilko staff ?

That said, Aldi Stocksbridge also had quite few empty shelves last Friday, and so did Asda PX a week or so ago  and Morrisons HB.

Edited August 30, 2022 by Chekhov

[Tyke02]

46 minutes ago, Chekhov said:

This post is also in the Ukraine thread but is equally relevant here :

So is this: https://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/topic/478436-ukraine-invasion-imminent/?do=findComment&comment=8562025

 

[hackey lad]

5 hours ago, Chekhov said:

This post is also in the Ukraine thread but is equally relevant here :

 

UK fires up coal power plant as gas prices soar

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58469238

Warm, still, autumn weather has meant wind farms have not generated as much power as normal, while soaring prices have made it too costly to rely on gas.

 

It is interesting because it is dated 7 September 2021.

More proof that, whilst the Ukraine war has definitely contributed to high energy bills, it was happening (albeit to a lesser extent) BEFORE the war.

 

Meths, for cleaning, but I may need it for other things the way things are going..... !

Interestingly I got some from Home Bargains, and their shelves were not as empty as Wilko's, which could be worrying for Wilko staff ?

That said, Aldi Stocksbridge also had quite few empty shelves last Friday, and so did Asda PX a week or so ago  and Morrisons HB.

Just remembered , Wilkinsons are closing some of their shops , Ones at Haymarket and Crystal Peaks are safe ( cousin is a bit of a gaffer at one of them) 

[Chekhov]

One has to remember that although the free market system is by far the most efficient for creating wealth, and is ordinarily very flexible, it can only go so far. So, to me, when they shut down literally half the economy for months on end from March 2020 it was absolutely certain there would be a massive hit on the economy. The only thing that surprised me was the number of people who were blind to it, or living in denial. The effect of shutting down much of the economy was postponed by them pumping hundreds of Billions of pounds into the economy, had they not done that we would have had the huge recession in 2020 instead of from 2022 onwards as we are doing now.

I have never been more certain about anything to do with the economy, we are in for a very rough ride.

Edited August 30, 2022 by Chekhov

[Chekhov]

5 hours ago, Tyke02 said:

So is this: https://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/topic/478436-ukraine-invasion-imminent/?do=findComment&comment=8562025

 

The price of oil has been going up since late 2020.

Note how low the price of oil was in March 2020 due to the Covid suppression polices, that low oil price affected investment decisions which were to have long term impacts. You simply cannot CANNOT mess with society and the economy in such an unprecedented and serious manner and not get massive damage. :

 

Edited August 30, 2022 by Chekhov

[Tyke02]

33 minutes ago, Chekhov said:

The price of oil has been going up since late 2020.

My last post was responding to comments that you made about the impact on electricity prices of the price of gas, and now your graph is about the price of oil.