This Could Be The Biggest Recession Since The 1930s

[RJRB]

49 minutes ago, Chekhov said:

Comparing to the price of Gold is a benchmark.

Which price of gold?That has fluctuated greatly over the years as Gordon Brown knows.

[Chekhov]

21 minutes ago, RJRB said:

Which price of gold?That has fluctuated greatly over the years as Gordon Brown knows.

It's more consistent, over time, than the value of money / inflation.

[Dromedary]

48 minutes ago, Chekhov said:

It's more consistent, over time, than the value of money / inflation.

No it not as gold is traded now just like other commodities such as fuel so it's less consistent not more. It's one of the reasons the Gold Standard was abolished.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_standard

[rogets]

People seem to forget that rates for mortgages in the late 1980s were at 17%

 

We struggled, we really did

[Chekhov]

2 hours ago, Dromedary said:

No it not as gold is traded now just like other commodities such as fuel so it's less consistent not more. It's one of the reasons the Gold Standard was abolished.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_standard

I'm talking over the long term, comparing the value of money to that of gold is a useful independent measure of inflation. You may detect a mistrust of the official inflation figures.....

[hackey lad]

I blame Covid for all this 

[RJRB]

3 hours ago, Chekhov said:

It's more consistent, over time, than the value of money / inflation.

https://goldprice.org/gold-price-charts/30-year-gold-price-history-in-uk-pounds-per-ounce

The gold price is very volatile ,so are you basing on a single gold price ,or the price of gold in 1994,2007,2014.

I remain confused by your comparisons.

[El Cid]

On 30/09/2022 at 19:39, rogets said:

People seem to forget that rates for mortgages in the late 1980s were at 17%

We struggled, we really did

Houses are much more expensive now, so these interest rate rises will take billions out of the economy.

The tax rate cut is for wealthier people, so that money is less likely to be spent on the High street. It could go into pensions or on foreign holidays.

Then we have the spending cuts to pay for the tax cuts. Where will they fall?

NHS and defence spending needs to be higher, perhaps more for the police too.

I am stumped on where the cuts will be.

[Chekhov]

On 20/06/2022 at 21:04, Chekhov said:

Many of us have thought we were going to get a massive recession after shutting down much of the economy for months on end during the pandemic, and also huge inflation (15% or more is perfectly possible) from the many billions pumped into at at the same time. But I reckon it's going to be even worse than I originally thought, partly because of the war in Ukraine, but also because many people  (esp in their 50s and 60s) have dropped out of the labour market.  They were at home off work getting used to not doing much with their money (because they couldn't) and basically got out of the habit of working. This was exacerbated by the recent relaxation in the rules as to what people can do with their pension pots (taking it our as cash rather than having to invest in an annuity paying them every month for the rest of their lives). This is one of the main reasons for low unemployment at the moment, and because there is no longer free movement of labour, we cannot compensate for it like we could before. Even worse, those 50 and 60 somethings are, because of their experience, some of the most productive in the economy, so the effect on the economy will be even more significant.

But it could get even worse because many of these early retirees will find their money does not last as well as they thought (esp with high inflation) so they will be re-entering the labour market, possibly whilst we are in a serious recession.

I am really worried, hold on to your hats, this is going to hurt, and possibly for years and years.

Oh dear......

 

The Times 3 Oct 22 (p38) :

Hundreds of thousands of retired people are considering returning to work because the rising cost of living has derailed their plans.

12% of pensioners questioned [in the survey] assumed that the rate of price rises, which was below th BofE's 2% target early last year, would remain low when making their plans for retirement.

 

I say "oh dear", but the return of experienced workers to the economy is good for productivity, unfortunately it will also exacerbate the inevitable increase in unemployment that always follows an economic recession.

 

Incidentally, has anyone else noticed the age of many of the delivery drivers has suddenly gone right up ? More proof of the above ?

Edited October 9, 2022 by Chekhov

[Chekhov]

Oh dear, what is happening in China has me even more worried about the economy, the world's as well a sour own. If China's dictatorship do not give up their Zero Covid policy we're in for it either way. 

One of two things will happen, mass civil unrest, which will affect supply chains from China (which, unfortunately, we cannot do without now) in a  potentially very serious manner.

Or mass lockdowns which will get even worse, which will do the same to supply chains.

Either way it could get very messy for us as well as the Chinese people.