This Could Be The Biggest Recession Since The 1930s

[Chekhov]

On 05/08/2023 at 17:05, Organgrinder said:

I don't converse with liars

You have surpassed yourself : avoiding the question, lying (yourself), and being insulting (with out any convincing evidence), all in 5 or 6 words. 

[Mister M]

On 05/08/2023 at 16:31, Chekhov said:

There you go again, not debating just insulting.

Tell us, what would you estimate were the percentages for why our present economic fix, out of :

 

1 - Brexit

 

2 - Ukraine war

 

3 - Suppressing society and the economy for nearly two years (to a greater or lesser extent) to try and combat Covid

 

And, one assumes, you cannot say "I have no idea", because I gave some estimates and you said they were "rubbish". Therefore, one assumes, you have some ideas.

So, come on, what are your estimates, and why ?

Brexit has cost the country 4% of its GDP each year. 

The chairman of the OBR said that the pandemic cost the UK economy 2% of its GDP:

Impact of Brexit on economy 'worse than Covid' - BBC News

[Chekhov]

10 hours ago, Mister M said:

Brexit has cost the country 4% of its GDP each year. 

The chairman of the OBR said that the pandemic cost the UK economy 2% of its GDP:

Impact of Brexit on economy 'worse than Covid' - BBC News

That is absolute rubbish but to be fair that is not exactly what he said in that article, he actually said  "the pandemic would reduce GDP "by a further 2%". And that's 18 months odd after the pandemic finished.

Quite apart from anything else we are still suffering many issues in our economy caused by the pandemic (more accurately the suppression of society) which have tangential effects on the economy, e.g. the huge level of inflation we now have, the huge public debt we have, the fact many people dropped out of the workforce, etc etc.

 

I do agree Brexit has cost us a lot though. Even if the after effects of suppressing society are still affecting us a similar amount (three and a half years after it started) that is massive.

Edited August 7, 2023 by Chekhov

[Mister M]

16 minutes ago, Chekhov said:

That is absolute rubbish but to be fair that is not exactly what he said in that article.

Quite apart from anything else we are still suffering many issues in our economy caused by the pandemic (more accurately the suppression of society) which have tangential effects on the economy, e.g. the huge level of inflation we now have, the huge public debt we have, the fact many people dropped out of the workforce, etc etc.

Why did you bother asking for an estimate of the %ages of the impact of Brexit and Covid on the economy if you know the answers?

 

I provided you a link to the head of the OBR quoted in an article which gave you the percentages on the impact on the economy:

leaving the EU would reduce the UK's potential GDP by about 4% in the long term.

He said forecasts showed the pandemic would reduce GDP "by a further 2%".

 

But then what does the head of the OBR know about the economy, or Public Health England and the World Health Organisation know about coronavirus when compared to you?

 

Of course you believe coronavirus and the lockdowns had a much bigger impact on the economy, because coronavirus and lockdowns have become magnified in your head and have assumed a greater importance over anything else.

Edited August 7, 2023 by Mister M

[Mister M]

39 minutes ago, Chekhov said:

That is absolute rubbish but to be fair that is not exactly what he said in that article, he actually said  "the pandemic would reduce GDP "by a further 2%". And that's 18 months odd after the pandemic finished.

Quite apart from anything else we are still suffering many issues in our economy caused by the pandemic (more accurately the suppression of society) which have tangential effects on the economy, e.g. the huge level of inflation we now have, the huge public debt we have, the fact many people dropped out of the workforce, etc etc.

 

I do agree Brexit has cost us a lot though. Even if the after effects of suppressing society are still affecting us a similar amount (three and a half years after it started) that is massive.

Yes the pandemic reduced UK's GDP by a further 2%, on top of the 4% reduction in the UK's GDP caused by Brexit.

That to me means that Brexit cost the economy 4% of its GDP,  and the pandemic cost the economy 2% of its GDP.

The further 2% doesn't mean 2% + 4% = 6%, therefore the pandemic caused a 6% reduction in UK's GDP; it means the economy already had a hit from Brexit of 4%, then the pandemic caused a further hit of 2%.

Why do you think he said:

"In the long term it is the case that Brexit has a bigger impact than the pandemic"?

 

Edited August 7, 2023 by Mister M

[harvey19]

Why bother looking at opposing reports just say,

Brexit, Covid, Climate Change has ruined our lives and we are all living on the breadline with no prospects for improvement seems to be some people’s outlook.

In reality most people are living lives much easier and healthier than previous generations but moan more and criticise easy targets.

Always look on the bright side and count your blessings.

[Mister M]

6 minutes ago, harvey19 said:

Why bother looking at opposing reports just say,

Brexit, Covid, Climate Change has ruined our lives and we are all living on the breadline with no prospects for improvement seems to be some people’s outlook.

In reality most people are living lives much easier and healthier than previous generations but moan more and criticise easy targets.

Always look on the bright side and count your blessings.

Climate change and coronavirus weren't self inflicted in the way that Brexit was. But I count my blessings that I'm not living through the Black Death, or WW1.

[harvey19]

18 minutes ago, Mister M said:

Climate change and coronavirus weren't self inflicted in the way that Brexit was. But I count my blessings that I'm not living through the Black Death, or WW1.

Brexit proved the government respected the democratic view of our country, a fact we should be proud of.

[Tyke02]

2 hours ago, Chekhov said:

That is absolute rubbish but to be fair that is not exactly what he said in that article, he actually said  "the pandemic would reduce GDP "by a further 2%". And that's 18 months odd after the pandemic finished.

No, it isnt.  The article is dated 27 October 2021, so about 18 months after the pandemic started.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, harvey19 said:

Brexit proved the government respected the democratic view of our country, a fact we should be proud of.

That's quite correct but unfortunately,   that's all it did,  and, apart from that,  it has been an unmitigated disaster.