This Could Be The Biggest Recession Since The 1930s

[harvey19]

1 hour ago, Organgrinder said:

That's quite correct but unfortunately,   that's all it did,  and, apart from that,  it has been an unmitigated disaster.

Early days for such a momentous change but new deals are being struck all the time and it will prove to have been the right decision eventually.

[Guest]

52 minutes ago, harvey19 said:

Early days for such a momentous change but new deals are being struck all the time and it will prove to have been the right decision eventually.

Trouble is,  the deals being struck are worse than the ones we had before,  such as the one with Australia,  and we keep relaxing rules which we used to stick to.

Bexit has turned out to be a pack of lies which simply give our government a free hand to evade the responsibilities that we used to accept.

As the boat people prove,  we are still not able to do what we like and what are we actually doing with this new found freedom ?

People are fed up of the  "jam tomorrow"   story.   None of this is like the Utopia they promised and,  apart from you,   I haven't heard anyone say that they are sure we did the right thing.

 

[trastrick]

5 hours ago, harvey19 said:

Why bother looking at opposing reports just say,

Brexit, Covid, Climate Change has ruined our lives and we are all living on the breadline with no prospects for improvement seems to be some people’s outlook.

In reality most people are living lives much easier and healthier than previous generations but moan more and criticise easy targets.

Always look on the bright side and count your blessings.

Blaming is a big part of the Left's political policies.

 

Britain's sovereign freedom in two World Wars against German dominance of Europe came at a very high price in sacrifice, blood and treasure.

 

I'm sure there are Brexit voters who were concerned less about their pocket books, a hit on the GDP,  than about Germany dominating Europe again. Doesn't even begin to scratch the surface of previous "sacrifices" to get out from under Germany's grand "plans" for the future.

 

So Germany dominates the European Union, and we have yet another War in Europe, possibly leading to WW3.

 

Sovereign freedom and independence always comes with a price. Free nations are willing to pay it!

 

https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/06/25/germany-is-doomed-to-lead-europe

[Chekhov]

3 hours ago, Tyke02 said:

No, it isnt.  The article is dated 27 October 2021, so about 18 months after the pandemic started.

Fair point, so it could not mention all the additional economic damage we have suffered (as a result of suppressing the economy and society) since then. After all, high inflation, millions having dropped out of the labour market, and our massive national debt were continuing (and are continuing) to act as a huge dampner on the economy.

 

UK public debt as a % of GDP was 84% in March 2020 before rising steeply to 99% of GDP by Sept 2020

It has just recently gone over 100%.

Don't expect any tax cuts or government largesse anytime soon.....

Edited August 7, 2023 by Chekhov

[Tyke02]

1 hour ago, Chekhov said:

Fair point, so it could not mention all the additional economic damage we have suffered (as a result of suppressing the economy and society) since then. After all, high inflation, millions having dropped out of the labour market, and our massive national debt were continuing (and are continuing) to act as a huge dampner on the economy.

 

UK public debt as a % of GDP was 84% in March 2020 before rising steeply to 99% of GDP by Sept 2020

It has just recently gone over 100%.

Don't expect any tax cuts or government largesse anytime soon.....

This is what the ONS have to say about GDP changes from Q1 2020 to Q1 2022:

 

"Isolating the economic impacts of Brexit is difficult because it has overlapped with the COVID-19 pandemic, global supply chain disruption and energy and food price shocks.

The nationwide lockdown undertaken to protect the country from the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic led to an unprecedented fall in UK GDP. Public health measures including social distancing, travel restrictions and closure of non-essential shops drove a 19.8% fall in GDP between April and June 2020. Household spending fell by over 20% over this period, the largest quarterly contraction on record, which was driven by falls in spending on restaurants, hotels, transport and recreation.

The furlough scheme, affecting a total of 11.6 million jobs, significantly curbed the labour market impact, with the unemployment rate rising from 3.8% at the end of 2019 to 5.2% by the end of 2020.

As restrictions were lifted GDP largely recovered by 17.6% in the third quarter of 2020 – between July and September.

Household spending rose by 19.6% in the third quarter of 2020, with higher spending in restaurants, hotels and on transport.

 

 

Despite a 1.2% drop in GDP over the first three months of 2021 with the emergence of the Delta variant and subsequent lockdown, the rest of the year saw incremental growth. Household spending rose once more in spring (8.5%) and summer (2.6%) 2021 – making a steady return to pre-coronavirus pandemic levels. GDP had returned to pre-coronavirus pandemic levels by the first quarter of 2022.

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/articles/gdpandeventsinhistoryhowthecovid19pandemicshockedtheukeconomy/2022-05-24#:~:text=The COVID-19 pandemic prompted,country reopened over the summer.

[crookesey]

In the 1930’s a huge percentage of the world population had very little to lose, history goes on to prove that what was lost by those that had something to lose was very quickly recovered by events caused by WW2.

 

l was driving in suburbia today when the news stated that residential property had reduced in value for the last four months on the trot, funny thing was that where I was in S17 there was hardly a For Sale sign visible. I haven’t had my property valued four times, and don’t know anyone who has. We lost the likes of Steel Works and Coal mines when there wasn’t a recession, I reckon that we will survive.

[Chekhov]

1 hour ago, Tyke02 said:

This is what the ONS have to say about GDP changes from Q1 2020 to Q1 2022:

 

"Isolating the economic impacts of Brexit is difficult because it has overlapped with the COVID-19 pandemic, global supply chain disruption and energy and food price shocks.

The nationwide lockdown undertaken to protect the country from the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic led to an unprecedented fall in UK GDP. Public health measures including social distancing, travel restrictions and closure of non-essential shops drove a 19.8% fall in GDP between April and June 2020. Household spending fell by over 20% over this period, the largest quarterly contraction on record, which was driven by falls in spending on restaurants, hotels, transport and recreation.

The furlough scheme, affecting a total of 11.6 million jobs, significantly curbed the labour market impact, with the unemployment rate rising from 3.8% at the end of 2019 to 5.2% by the end of 2020.

As restrictions were lifted GDP largely recovered by 17.6% in the third quarter of 2020 – between July and September.

Household spending rose by 19.6% in the third quarter of 2020, with higher spending in restaurants, hotels and on transport.

 

Despite a 1.2% drop in GDP over the first three months of 2021 with the emergence of the Delta variant and subsequent lockdown, the rest of the year saw incremental growth. Household spending rose once more in spring (8.5%) and summer (2.6%) 2021 – making a steady return to pre-coronavirus pandemic levels. GDP had returned to pre-coronavirus pandemic levels by the first quarter of 2022.

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/articles/gdpandeventsinhistoryhowthecovid19pandemicshockedtheukeconomy/2022-05-24#:~:text=The COVID-19 pandemic prompted,country reopened over the summer.

Normally a one percent difference in GDP is regarded as very significant so I am surprised you publicise the fact the economy shrank by an unprecedented 20% due to the suppression of society and the economy. It was really was unprecedented.

Compared to that GDP figures afterwards could not do anything but look spectacular.

That huge gap in productivity would have been bad enough but to pump £70 Billion in to the economy at the same time as that unprecedented fall off in productivity was bound to lead to huge inflation and that is exactly what has happened. If anything I am surprised it was not even worse, though I am cynical about the figures and I th k it will take longer than they predict to get inflation back below 2%. 

Worse still, they spent about £400 Billion (that's so many zeros it doesn't even fit on my calculator....) during the pandemic so the nation's cupboard is bare.

Even if you ignore the draconian and unprecedented restrictions on our freedoms (and I do not discount them) the whole policy was madness, particularly as they ended up spending vastly more on any lives saved than the NHS would ordinarily do. 

 

Can't afford you mortgage ?

Interest rates are having to rise to choke off inflation, and the biggest cause of inflation was what they did during the pandemic :

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 7, 2023 by Chekhov

[Tyke02]

53 minutes ago, Chekhov said:

Normally a one percent difference in GDP is regarded as very significant so I am surprised you publicise the fact the economy shrank by an unprecedented 20% due to the suppression of society and the economy. It was really was unprecedented.

I was merely giving you the gift of publicly available data that you didn't seem able to find to save you making up your own for a change.  As I said, there is a lot of information out there, just a shame you don't seem willing to go look for it and build your opinions off information rather than your preconceptions.

 

Unlike you, I'm not arguing a particular position, but pointing out instances where your arguments don't work or aren't supported by the "evidence" you present.  

 

When your opinions are based on logic and evidence (and there's no contradictory data you're ignoring) I'll happily leave you to it.  You need to do better if you want to be convincing, in the ways I have explained.  If you don't want to be convincing, but just to scratch your obsessional itch, that seems like a waste of oxygen.

 

By the way did you miss the part of the ONS link that said thinks you liked about 2020 that said the pandemic was no longer a factor in reduced GDP by Q1 2022.

Edited August 7, 2023 by Tyke02