Tuc's Leader Says Says 'Workers Are Being Pushed To Breaking Point'

[Chekhov]

14 hours ago, L00b said:

I don’t know whether the UK was held under Covid restrictions ‘longer’ (than where?)

Almost all countries were held in Covid restrictions longer than us. We, and I specifically mean England, was one of the first countries out of restrictions in July 21, but they then reimposed a load in December for Omicron, for no reason whatsoever it transpired.

 

14 hours ago, L00b said:

I do know that the UK delayed bringing these restrictions relative to others, which -inevitably- boosted the infection rate and volume in the early phase, resulting in more infected and negative outcomes relative to others (all other factors being equal). This will have had some bearing on the duration and scope of your restrictions.

Many people ended up changing their minds about if the UK's high initial surge was a bad thing in the end :

 

The Times 22 Nov 21 (p12)

Britain's previous high infection rate makes it unlikely that it will follow European countries into another lockdown scientists have said.Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford, said that despite soaring cases in the rest of Europe Britons should be safe to order their Christmas turkeys because there was more immunity in the population. "Back in the dark days of March, April and May 2020 everybody said Gosh aren't those Germans clever, they haven't got any Covid and aren't the British dumb because they've got lots of it ?" Bell told Times Radio. "Actually I don't think it has quite worked out that way. One of the interesting things is that it may well be that the delay in the lockdown in the UK, the pretty extensive level of disease, has given us longer term protection"

Sir Andrew Pollard, director of the Oxford Vaccine Group, agreed with Bell that it was unlikely Britain would follow Europe's path in part because it has had such a high caseload since the summer. He added that reaching a point where the virus no longer spread was "not going to happen" and that it would be around for decades.

Edited October 19, 2022 by Chekhov

[Guest sibon]

@SFBeca

 

This thread needs merging with the covid thread .

[Chekhov]

13 hours ago, L00b said:

Beyond that, as I told you -and as you inevitably ignored the point- these Covid restrictions are one factor, amongst a plethora of other factors, some domestic, others foreign, which all contribute to placing the UK economy in a worse situation than others today, in the most perfect of perfect storms. Regrettably, but there you are.

 

If all you’ve got, is “Covid, lockdown, rah-rah-rah” as usual…not bothered.

 

If you’re interested in looking at the respective weighs of-

FDI divestment

immigrant labour force curtailing

freight costs inflation

fuel inflation (pre/post war)

supply/demand shocks

import-export procedural capacities

regulatory effects

<…>
-we may still be in  business.

We may be suffering a breakdown in communication here.

I agree that Brexit and the Ukraine etc are significant factors in the present economic disaster, but they are no where near as significant as shutting down half the economy for months on end whilst, at the same time, pumping many many billions into it.

[L00b]

1 hour ago, Chekhov said:

We may be suffering a breakdown in communication here.

I agree that Brexit and the Ukraine etc are significant factors in the present economic disaster, but they are no where near as significant as shutting down half the economy for months on end whilst, at the same time, pumping many many billions into it.

There’s no other breakdown that I can see, than your deliberate intent to peg the current state of the British economy onto Covid lockdown measures and little to nothing else.

 

I have tried to mitigate, with a passing mention of the very many other factors, which have all played -and continue to play- a non-trivial role in that current state, to try and elevate the debate a little from your overfocused, partisan perspective . Apparently to no effect.

 

Covid and the lockdown measures didn’t kill off 5% of your GDP. The 5% deficit which the UK is maintaining steadfastly these days, relative to the rest of the G7, well over a year from the last set of lockdowns - which were implemented by that same rest of the G7, at sensibly the same costs to their national treasuries and economies.
 

Over and out.

[Chekhov]

2 hours ago, L00b said:

Covid and the lockdown measures didn’t kill off 5% of your GDP. The 5% deficit which the UK is maintaining steadfastly these days, relative to the rest of the G7, well over a year from the last set of lockdowns - which were implemented by that same rest of the G7, at sensibly the same costs to their national treasuries and economies.

So you think shutting down much of the economy for months on end "didn't kill off 5% of GDP" ?

I would have thought more than 5%, depending on how they measure it and compare it to whatever. If you're right that suppressing the economy (and society) for months and months on end had such little effect  (you imply it cut GDP by significantly less than 5%) one wonders why we even need those sections of the economy......

 

At the peak about 9 million people were on Furlough, out of a working population of 33 million, that's not far off 30%. To say nothing of the decrease in the productivity of those not furloughed (because of all the suppression measures like "social distancing" and telling people [occasionally "just" encouraging them] to stay at home and not go out and spend money on goods and services).

Edited October 19, 2022 by Chekhov

[Chekhov]

Latest hypocrite :

 

The Times 17 Oct 22 (p8) :

 

Jonathan Reynolds, the shadow business secretary, told the BBC "I don't know which bits of the budget still apply and I don't know what we will hear next week . What I will say is, any cuts the Conservative Party brings forward are entirely of its own making. Entirely because of its own incompetence [and nothing whatsoever to do with shutting down much of the economy for months on end, which we in the labour party enthusiastically supported].

 

[L00b]

4 minutes ago, Chekhov said:

So you think shutting down much of the economy for months on end "didn't kill off 5% of GDP" ?

I would have thought more than 5%, depending on how they measure it and compare it to whatever. If you're right that suppressing the economy (and society) for months and months on end had such little effect  (you imply it cut GDP by significantly less than 5%) one wonders why we even need those sections of the economy......

I don’t think that, I know that: all G7 countries were affected by Covid, all G7 countries enacted costly lockdowns, lockdown durations and measures were much of a muchness (at the scale of their effect on respective national economies), all G7 countries took a GDP hit from it all…yet the UK is the only G7 country with a GDP still smaller now, than pre-Covid 2019.

 

 

As I keep trying to tell you, the reasons for that go way, way, wayyyyy beyond Covid lockdown policies.
 

Variously, and each as relevant as the other and, for some, more relevant that Covid lockdowns: lackof substantial business investment for about 5 years, substantial EU labour force shrinkage during Covid which is not returning to the UK/ their jobs, substantial contraction of exports (what really creates/adds value, for any national economy) for many reasons (Brexit, but not only: doubling+ of freight costs globally, through shrinkage of global transport capacity and, in the UK, insufficient specialist/skilksets, (…)), substantial increase in costs of imports (particularly relevant when used in later economic activities, e.g. UK manufacture with a view to export finished products) both due to the above and £ depreciation, (…)

 

‘Told you it was a most perfect of perfect storms. But will you listen, for once? Or charge yet again at the Covid lockdown windmills?

[Chekhov]

You still haven't explained away how this :

 

At the peak about 9 million people were on Furlough, out of a working population of 33 million, that's not far off 30%. To say nothing of the decrease in the productivity of those not furloughed (because of all the suppression measures like "social distancing" and telling people [occasionally "just" encouraging them] to stay at home and not go out and spend money on goods and services).

 

Knocked significantly less than 5% off GDP ?

If you are right the GDP figures cannot be worth the paper they are written on.

[L00b]

6 minutes ago, Chekhov said:

You still haven't explained away how this :

 

At the peak about 9 million people were on Furlough, out of a working population of 33 million, that's not far off 30%. To say nothing of the decrease in the productivity of those not furloughed (because of all the suppression measures like "social distancing" and telling people [occasionally "just" encouraging them] to stay at home and not go out and spend money on goods and services).

 

Knocked significantly less than 5% off GDP ?

If you are right the GDP figures cannot be worth the paper they are written on.

I haven’t, because that’s a strawman argument based on your perception/interpretation of my post.

 

I’m confident that you understand what ‘killing off’ means, i.e. it’s gone and not coming back.

 

Covid/lockdowns didn’t kill off UK GDP. They suppressed it, for the duration of the lockdowns, then UK GDP was free to flourish apace, anew, once normal activity resumed. Like everywhere else.

 

Over a year on (at least), economic and trading statistics show that GDP has returned to and exceeded pre-pandemic levels everywhere else, but in the UK.

 

That’s my last about Covid lockdowns. I’m done breathing debating life into your crusading psychodrama.

 

 

[Chekhov]

23 hours ago, L00b said:

I haven’t, because that’s a strawman argument based on your perception/interpretation of my post.

I’m confident that you understand what ‘killing off’ means, i.e. it’s gone and not coming back.

Covid/lockdowns didn’t kill off UK GDP. They suppressed it, for the duration of the lockdowns, then UK GDP was free to flourish apace, anew, once normal activity resumed. Like everywhere else.

Over a year on (at least), economic and trading statistics show that GDP has returned to and exceeded pre-pandemic levels everywhere else, but in the UK.

That’s my last about Covid lockdowns. I’m done breathing debating life into your crusading psychodrama.

Yeah, I don't know anything about the economy of this country and the effects  that suppressing it would have. Which is why I have been predicting all of this for about two and a half years......

Back in March 2020 I thought the stock market would fall so took most of my pension out of it and put it into savings. Then, once a vaccine had been approved, I put it all back into the stock market because I thought that would go up and inflation would inevitably rise significantly shortly. But, according to you, I don't know anything (apparently), though my pension fund may disagree with you.

 

Edited October 20, 2022 by Chekhov