Euro - Experts

[richard]

There are some issues about joining the Euro which have not been aired in this thread, which I have found really interesting. (A thought occurs - top ten threads so far... hmmn)

 

Let me state some facts as I see them.

• The five tests are designed to ensure that our immediate future after joining the euro would be favourable.
  
• The EU is looking at expansion to include the poor eastern european countries.
  
• The EU government is in need of reform. This kind of doesn't matter as we are a part of the EC and many of their decisions will affect us anyway.
  
• We lose the ability to adjust interest rates.
  
• We should gain a stable currency on joining the euro due to the enormous amount of wealth producing industry backing it up.
  
• We are europeans and despite the assertion of a prior post our culture is much more closely related to that of Europe than of the US.
  

 

So at the referendum which may never come, because labour may not be in power when the 5 tests are met, what way will I vote?

 

I ignore the holiday exchange argument for joining as frivolous, similarly I reject the heritage argument - when people start talking of fighting wars for the ound they lie, people fought for their lives and their families and against facism, i.e. for choice - so we can take this choice freely.

 

Well assuming that the 5 tests are met I will first have to make a judgement about the long term future of the county not just the immediate needs, and we are facing tough times.. Consider the de-indutrialisation of the country - in fact the whole of Europe as industry moves to the far east - particulalry China. Consider the moves in the IT industry to ship highly technical jobs programming to India. Consider that as a nation which wants to increase our wealth we have to get more money into the country than leaves it. Our interests will be best served by aiding our industry and in particular our exporters and people who bring money into the country. I believe that manufacturers and the financial industry are going to be the hope here eruo or no. But as one of the five tests is that it benefits the financial industry and that test has already been met, I would expect that thinking along these lines I would be in favour of joining the euro.

 

There is of course much more to consider in linking ourselves with Europe this closely.

 

Should the poorer countries that have applied to join Europe be accepted I would need to evaluate the effect on Britain as of right now I have no data. Remeber the aim of the game is to be sure that we are alright and we do this by a growing economy, more money in than out. We may support the poor countries for a while but then in the free trade spirit we may find a useful market in the future. A market which may well be excluded from us by our lack of membership from the euro.

 

I also have the feeling that if we do not join the euro we will move closer to the US in both our economy and our thinking, something which we as a country have been doing for years. I fear this.

 

In the US there is a completely different thinking about welfare and social security. They believe that equality is produced through social mobility and that they have a classless society which allows all members of their ssociety to achieve as much as they like so long as they are prepared to work for it. This leads to laws which are primarily concerned with protecting property rather than people. Thus the americans do not have a national health service and as dubya gives tax breaks to the richest 1% he makes welfare handouts to the poorest 10% smaller and harder to get, and whats more the people generally dont mind because they believe that they will one day be rich.

 

Over here we have a very different view of government. one which we share with our western european counterparts. We generally believe that the state should provide a cushion for every indivual who finds themselves jobless or ill. This is the social contract. We will be ruled by others so long as they provide a place where we can grow and learn and live our lives and should anything terrible happen we should be given help to get back on our feet. This is the european view of government. Here we have started following American ideals however, money given to Jobseekers has been cut and it has been made harder to get.

 

As far as our economy is concerned we again have moved closer to the US's conservative view that we should have "flexible" labour markets as seen by the decline of trades unions, and we are also dangerously close to relying upon consumer spending to maintain our economy.

 

In the US thery have a trade deficit, a huge one, every year $4bn flows out of american hands (If i remeber correctly.) If it was not for two factors the American economy would be sunk. The first factor is foriegn investment - which would dissapear if the economy started looking shakey. The other prop of their deficit is increased borrowing and spending by the American public - a terrible situation to be in as the pulic are a fickle lot. If one of these two props should look unsteady the other would crumble and the american economy will go tits up with it.

 

Should this happen, and I think it will, for what its worth, then we will be far best placed to deal with the world wide repercussions by being in the euro which would then become the preferred currency. Since I think this will happen this leads me to support joining.

 

Nobody in the euro will want it to fail. Germany is in trouble for its own reasons as my german friend Jõrg told me recently. As the country has limped towards their current recession he said the politicians have been busy arguing with Italy for after some Italian made Nazi references. He got really angry about them. He doesn't feel the europ has an effect, for what its worth I take his word for it.

 

I vote yes so far.

 

Just for those who havent guessed yet, i am terrible at checking threads I have posted to for replies. Apologies.

[max]

Nice one Richard.

 

Unfortunately, you've fallen into the classic trap of introducing facts which, no doubt, will stop this thread dead.

[richard]

Ah but I didn't back them up!

[max]

Originally posted by richard

Ah but I didn't back them up!

 

Maybe not, but reasoned arguments usually have the same effect.

[Phanerothyme]

Certainly stopped this track dead richard.

 

Still, at least t020 was wrong about the election. It proves he's not infallible, as previously suspected.

[LordChaverly]

Like the issue of the UK's entry into the eurozone, this thread is almost dead but it won't quite lie down. There is not a single valid argument for joining the euro anytime soon, and a lot of powerful arguments against. Even the pro-euro lobbies are now half-hearted and equivocal in their support for early entry.

 

In my opinion, the debate will only revive again when two things happen. Firstly, when the economic performance of the eurozone outstrips that of the UK for a sustained period (no signs of that happening yet); and secondly, when the European monetary system is made more flexible than it is at present (despite the de facto changes to the Growth and Stability Pact, the system is still quite rigid). If this is combined with other factors, such as a fall in Foreign Direct Investment into the UK relative to that of the eurozone, plus an increase in the volatility of the pound relative to other major currencies, then the debate might spring back into life. But even if it does, the obstacles would still remain formidable (for example, public opinion is still very largely hostile, as are most of the public prints).